March 8, 2010
China's 2010 beef production to decline
China's beef production in 2010 will fall 5% due to a continued fall in China's cattle herd, according to a USDA attache report.
Estimates contained in attache reports are not official USDA data. The abstract of the attache report follows.
High Chinese beef prices will boost beef imports, with beef imports forecast to jump one-third to 30,000 tonnes. Beef exports are forecast to slide 25% to 28,000 tonnes due to high Chinese beef prices.
Rising swine and productive sow inventories and a stronger Chinese economy in 2010 will boost Chinese pork production 4% to 50.6 million tonnes. Despite higher domestic production, Chinese pork imports will rebound from sharply lower levels in 2009 to 220,000 tonnes, fuelled by stronger demand in 2010. China's live swine and pork exports in 2010 are forecast to increase 4% and 3% respectively to 1.78 million head and 240,000 tonnes, bolstered by higher sales to Hong Kong.
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Beijing forecasts China's total meat production in 2010 will rise another 3% to 77.5 million tonnes following a 3% increase in the previous year, as higher pork production more than offsets further declines in Chinese beef supplies.
China's beef production is estimated to continue falling to 5.5 million tonnes in 2010, down 5% from the year before, as comparatively low farm returns dampen enthusiasm for raising beef cattle. Post forecasts China's 2010 beef imports will increase nearly one-third to 30,000 tonnes, encouraged by continued high prices in the Chinese beef market. Meanwhile, reduced supplies and high prices will drive further declines in Chinese beef exports to 28,000 tonnes, down from 38,000 tonnes in 2009.
China's breeding cow imports in 2009 nearly doubled to 36,000 head fuelled by strong demand from dairy operators as the industry gradually recovers from the nationwide melamine crisis in September 2008. The imports are needed to begin replacing some of the more than one million dairy cows that were eliminated from China's dairy herd following the melamine scandal. Total sales are estimated to rise 25% in 2010 to 45,000 head. Australia and New Zealand will continue to dominate live cattle supplies to China as imports of North American cattle are banned due to BSE.
While a tiny share of total consumption, China's beef imports continue to rise rapidly, and are forecast to jump 30% this year to 30,000 tonnes. In 2009, these sales increased more than threefold to 23,000 tonnes, with shipments from Australia, Uruguay and New Zealand all more than doubling from the year before. While Australia is the top supplier, imports from Uruguay are rising the fastest due to competitive pricing on muscle cuts. These imports topped 6,000 tonnes and strong gains are expected in 2010.
