March 7, 2024

 

Australian wheat production forecast to surge due to improved planting conditions

Australia's wheat output is anticipated to see a significant expansion in the upcoming season, driven by improved planting conditions following a year of weather extremes, including heavy rains and stifling heat, Bloomberg reported.

 

According to Emily Dahl, an economist from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, wheat production is projected to climb to 28.4 million tonnes in 2024-25, marking a notable 9% increase from the previous year. Additionally, Dahl stated that barley and canola output are also expected to rise.

 

Dahl said that winter crop production is forecast to increase, mainly due to an improvement in conditions across eastern states, which will bode well for the season given good soil moisture levels.

 

Australia slightly raised its 2023-24 wheat output estimate to 26 million tonnes after the harvest of its main winter crop. However, the quality was mixed due to rain in the nation's east, which damaged some grain. Canola production also saw a slight increase.

 

The harvest commenced earlier and at a faster pace than in recent years due to hot and dry conditions across most states, including the top wheat producer, Western Australia. Despite this, overall wheat output is still expected to be 36% lower than the previous bumper crop.

 

A larger proportion of wheat was classified as high protein grades, particularly in Western Australia and South Australia, compared to previous years affected by La Niña. However, wet harvest conditions led to quality downgrades in Victoria and parts of New South Wales.

 

Dahl mentioned during a separate speech at a conference in Canberra that overall grains production in 2024-25 is anticipated to reach 51 million tonnes, which is 9% above the 10-year average. This compares with 46.7 million tonnes in 2023-24.

 

Barley output for 2024-25 is expected to increase to 11.6 million tonnes, up from 10.8 million tonnes, while canola production is forecast to rise to 6.1 million tonnes, up from 5.7 million tonnes. Planting of winter grains typically starts from April, with harvesting commencing from November.

 

The nominal gross value of crop production in 2024-25 is expected to rise by 2% to AUD 49 billion (US$32 billion) due to more favourable climatic conditions, boosting output of wheat, barley, and canola.

 

Despite the increased production, export volumes of the three crops are expected to decline as domestic stocks are rebuilt and grain is used for animal feed, leading to a reduction in the value of shipments by AUD 1.7 billion (US$1.1 billion) in 2024–25 to AUD 14.9 billion (US$9.8 billion), according to the government.

 

-      Bloomberg