March 7, 2006

 

Brazilian firm reduces 2005/06 soy estimates to 57.5 million tonnes

 

 

Brazilian agribusiness consulting firm Celeres lowered its estimate for the 2005/06 soy crop on Monday by 0.5 percent to 57.5 million tonnes.

 

"Most of the lost in production is because of dry weather in areas in Parana and Bahia," said Anderson Galvao Gomes, a chief soy analyst at Celeres.

 

The crop analysis for the March report was done in late January. Celeres releases monthly crop estimates.

 

News of the slightly smaller crop should come as no surprise to the Brazilian soy market. The official estimate, done by the federal government in January, is currently being revised because agronomists in Brasilia said their 58.1 million tonne estimate was too optimistic following reports of severe dry weather in both Parana and Bahia states. The new government estimate is due out March 20.

 

In Bahia, the seventh largest producer, Celeres revised its recent estimate to 2.2 million tonnes, down from 2.3 million tonnes in February.

 

Parana's losses were more expressive, falling to 10.2 million tonnes from February's estimate of 10.9 million. Parana is the second largest soy producer in Brazil.

 

"Production losses in Bahia and Parana were offset by production increases elsewhere," Gomes said.

 

The two biggest soy producing regions, the center-west and south, will see production above the 2004/05 soy harvest.

 

Overall production for the 2005/06 crop in the centre-west region should come in at 29.3 million tonnes, compared with 28.9 million tonnes in the 2004/05 harvest.

 

Southern soybean production for the 2005/06 soy harvest is estimated at 18.3 million tonnes, compared with 13.2 million tonnes in the 2004/05 harvest.

 

Production is expected to fall in the south-east, north-east and north in comparison to the 2004/05 harvest.

 

Celeres put south-east production at 4.6 million tonnes, down from 4.7 million tonnes in the 2004/05 harvest. Northeast production is estimated to be 3.8 million tonnes, compared with 4.4 million tonnes in the 2004/05 harvest, with northern soy production expected to fall to 1.3 million tonnes, compared with 1.4 million tonnes in 2004/05.

 

Brazil is currently harvesting soybeans in Mato Grosso, the country's top soy producing state.

 

The majority of the country's producers will start harvesting next week.