March 6, 2025

 

US beef imports to reach about two million tonnes this year

 

 

US beef imports are expected to peak at about two million tonnes in 2025, before falling to around 1.36 mt in 2029 as a result of herd rebuilding and higher production, the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Economic Research Service said in a recent forecast.

 

In the same report, the USDA projected US beef exports to decline through to 2027, reaching less than one million tonnes, before recovering to more than 1.4 mt in 2030.

 

The analysis is contained in USDA's Long-Term Projections to 2034 report.

 

The report says that US beef production and trade are closely linked, and changes in production typically have a contrasting effect on the pattern of US beef imports.

 

Domestic US beef production tended to follow a cycle of eight to 12 years, driven by cattle producers' response to price fluctuations and pasture conditions, the report says.

 

In 2022, US beef production reached a peak of 13.1 million tonnes. Production is projected to hit a low of 11.3 million tonnes in 2027, before climbing through 2034, the final year of the USDA's Agricultural Baseline projections.

 

As US domestic beef production falls, import volumes are expected to increase, peaking in 2025 at 4.4 billion pounds, or around two million tonnes. Last year's Australian beef exports to the US reached 394,715 tonnes – close to the all-time annual record trade between the two countries – and are likely to go higher this year as the US enters its critical deficit period.

 

US beef imports are expected to begin a steep decline, reaching a 10-year low in 2029, as  domestic  production climbs to better meet domestic beef demand, the USDA's report says.

 

"US beef export volumes typically are more stable than imports, although exports do tend to follow the same general direction as domestic production," the report states.

 

US beef exports are projected to gradually rise starting in 2027 and continue to grow through 2030 before leveling off for the rest of the projection period.

 

The macroeconomic forecasts completed in August reflect modest economic growth in the near term following the heightened volatility that occurred in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic.

 

The report assumes that economic growth remains positive, but global growth rates continue to slow over the long term. Feed prices largely decline or remain static for much of the projection period.

 

US cattle inventories are projected to rebound from a 21st century low of 86 million head this year, rising to more than 91 million head late in the 10-year projection period. With growing inventories and continued growth in slaughter weights, US commercial beef production is projected to climb 11.1%, the report suggests.

 

US beef cattle and feeder steer prices are anticipated to decline by 19.3% and 24.4% respectively, from projected record high levels in 2026.

 

US beef cattle inventories are expected to reverse patterns of decline and begin increasing again during the projection period, with the current liquidation component of the cycle hitting its low-point early in the projections.

 

Beef production is expected to expand steadily after reaching a low in 2027, based on expectations of consistently strong cattle prices.

- Beef Central