March 6, 2013

Australia sees a weaker 2012-13 export value

Australia's 2012-13 outlook for farm commodities was described as 'mixed', with expectations that the country's export value will soften to US$35.9 billion, compared with US$36.3 billion in 2011-12.

This is according to ABARES Executive Director Paul Morris, who was speaking at the release of the March issue of Agricultural commodities at the Outlook 2013 Conference.

Morris said exports were forecast to decline further in 2013-14 to US$35.6 billion due principally to lower grain exports. "In 2013-14 a rise in export earnings is predicted for barley of 4%, 7% for wine, 2% rises for both beef and veal, and wool is expected to increase by 17%," Morris said. Falls are forecast for rapeseed (13%), wheat (8%), rice (17%), grain sorghum (7%), cotton (15%) and sugar (5%).

"Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2013-14 at around US$1.2 billion, following a forecast decline of 4% in 2012-13," Morris said.

"Forest product exports are forecast to increase by 3.7% to US$2.4 billion in 2013-14, following a forecast increase of 3.1% in 2012-13."

ABARES figures forecast an improvement in production value for agriculture, including: the gross value of farm production to increase to US$47.7 billion in 2013-14, following a forecast decline of 4.5% to US$46.8 billion in 2012-13; the gross value of crop production to increase by around 1% to US$27.3 billion in 2013-14, following a forecast decline of 2.4% in 2012-13; the gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 3.5% to US$20.4 billion in 2013-14, after a forecast decline of 7.3% in 2012-13.

"However, over the medium term we are expecting the value of farm production to fall in real terms to around US$45 billion by 2017-18," Mr Morris said.

"This is almost 4% lower than 2012-13 and reflects moderate global economic growth, an expectation the Australian dollar will remain high, and strong competition from overseas suppliers. Australia has maintained its productivity and competitiveness against key competitors over the long term. However, a slowing productivity growth rate for agriculture in Australia is making this more challenging. A greater focus on innovation and being more targeted in meeting consumer demands in Asia will be essential to take advantage of future opportunities."