March 5, 2007

 

US 2007/08 soybean crush projected at 1.82 billion bushel

 

 

The US Department of Agriculture is expecting 2007/08 soybean crush at 1.820 billion bushels, up a little more than 2 percent from 2006/07.

 

The forecast came from USDA economists at the USDA's annual Agricultural Outlook Forum on Friday (Mar 2).

 

"Despite higher soybean prices, strong product prices and relatively large soybean supplies are expected to support a modest increase in domestic crushing," USDA said.

 

Domestic soymeal consumption is projected to increase 1 percent to 2 percent, limited by increased availability of corn by-products and by small expected gains in poultry and hog production because of relatively high feed costs, the report said.

 

Soymeal prices are projected at US$205 per short tonne, up 9 percent from the midpoint of the projected range for 2006/07, the USDA said. Higher corn prices are expected to continue supporting meal prices.

 

Soyoil prices also are seen rising as growing worldwide demand for biodiesel is expected to support all vegetable oils firm, the USDA report said. With global vegetable oil ending stocks relative to use projected for 2006/07 at the lowest in 30 years, soyoil prices for 2007/08 are projected to be up 7 percent at 30.5 cents per pound.

 

Although international demand for soymeal and soyoil will remain strong, competition from Argentina could limit potential gains for US exports, the USDA said.

 

China is expected to continue dominating the growth of global soybean imports because of its growing demand for soymeal and soyoil combined with excess crush capacity built over the last few years, the report said.

 

Soyoil production in 2007/08 is seen at 20.71 billion pounds. Domestic use is expected at 20.0 billion pounds. Exports are pegged at 1.425 billion pounds and ending stocks at 2.035 billion pounds.

 

Soymeal production is seen at 43.285 million short tonnes, with domestic usage at 9.0 million tonnes and ending stocks at 300,000 tonnes.