March 4, 2013

 

 

Informa Economics has ceased reducing estimates for Argentina's soy crop, while raising forecasts for Brazil's oilseed and corn harvest.

 

The analysis group has kept its forecast on soy harvest in Argentina at 51 million tonnes during a monthly update.

 

While lower than the 53.0 million-tonnes-estimate of the USDA, the forecast is above that of Lanworth, which cut its forecast to 49.6 million tonnes last week.

 

The Buenos Aires grains exchange downgraded its estimate to 48.5 million tonnes on February 28, cautioning that dryness between late December and mid-February had caused irreversible damage to crops in some areas, causing plants to shed early-formed pods.

 

The Rosario grains exchange estimates the crop at 48.0 million tonnes.

 

Argentina's farm ministry has offered support for domestic soy crop, saying that recent rains had indeed wrought improvements.

 

In northern parts of Buenos Aires province, the major grain-growing area, "soy crops are generally in a good condition since the rains arrived," the ministry said in a weekly crop progress report, although acknowledging weaker crops further south.

 

Informa left its estimate for the Argentine corn crop unchanged at 25 million tonnes, in line with forecasts from Lanworth and the Buenos Aires grains exchange.

 

However, it raised its estimate for Brazil's soy by 500,000 tonnes to 84.5 million tonnes, one million tonnes ahead of the USDA figure.

 

Informa pegged Brazil's corn harvest at 71.6 million tonnes, a gain of 1.3 million tonnes, but below USDA and Lanworth figures.