March 3, 2025

 

US farmers plan for more corn, lesser soybeans plantings this spring

 

 

Farmers in the United States plan to plant more corn and fewer soybeans this spring than they did last year, hoping to eke out a profit and shield themselves from US President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs, growers and analysts said.

 

"When you look at relative profitability, corn is winning the acreage battle," said Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist with North Dakota State University.

 

Some farmers might be able to earn "a nickel or two" on every bushel of corn, Iowa State University economist Chad Hart said. However, for soybeans and other crops, prices have fallen below the cost of production.

 

"Right now, given what cost structures look like, corn has the best pathway to make a little profit in 2025," Hart said.

 

Planting decisions that are usually finalised in winter help determine the production of corn and soybeans, the top two US cash crops. The grains are primarily used for animal feed, cooking oils, and renewable fuels. The US is the world's largest corn exporter and the number two soybean supplier after Brazil.

 

Global corn stockpiles are projected to hit a decade low this year, so a big US crop would help replenish inventories, making more grain available to buyers worldwide. Still, more US corn stays in the country than soybeans, making corn a better hedge against tariffs.

 

A recent Reuters poll of analysts forecast that corn plantings would rise to 37.9 million hectares, while soybean plantings would fall to 34.2 million hectares.

 

Growers face a third straight year of dwindling crop revenues, making decisions about what and how much to plant much tougher. Farmers are expected to turn a slight profit this year, largely due to government disaster relief, even as income from crops is expected to fall for a third straight year, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast this month.

 

Prices for corn and soybeans, as well as other major crops such as wheat and cotton, are low enough that US farmers would struggle to turn much of a profit with any of them, economists said.

 

Trump's tariffs against major buyers of US grain might add to corn's advantage while discouraging soybean plantings. The US exports about 40% of its soybean crop each year, but only about 15% of its corn harvest, leaving soybean prices more sensitive to trade disruptions.

 

China is by far the world's top soy buyer, booking more than half of US soybean exports annually, while the customer base for US corn is more varied.

 

Trade tensions with China flared last month after the Trump administration slapped 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports, and Beijing responded by imposing limited tariffs on a smaller set of US goods, excluding agriculture products.

 

Duties against Mexico, another major buyer of US grains, and Canada, a buyer of US grains, meats and food products, are set to take effect on March 4.

- Taipei Times