March 3, 2005

Brazil's abiove lowers 04-05 soy view to 58.3 million tonnes

Brazil's main soybean crushing body Abiove lowered its estimate for the local 2004-05 soybean crop (October-September) to 58.3 million tonnes from 61.5 million tonnes in a report released Wednesday.

The estimate was lowered at a time when farmers in southern Brazil are complaining of crop losses due to drought.

Output is still seen 16.4  per cent higher than the 50.1 million tonnes produced in 2003-04.

However, soybean and soymeal export estimates were only reduced slightly as producers and crushers will opt to work through stocks.

Soybean exports are pegged at 22.3 million tonnes compared with 22.5 million in the January report and 19.3 million tonnes last year. Meanwhile, soymeal exports are pegged at 15.4 million tonnes, down from the last estimate of 16.0 million tonnes and last year's production of 14.1 million tonnes.

Total soybean crushing is now estimated to reach 31.7 million tonnes in 2005-06. Previously, processors were pegged to use 32.4 million tonnes of beans while last year 29.23 million tonnes were crushed.

Year-end stocks are now seen totaling 1.0 million tonnes, the same as last year but down from the previously predicted 1.2 million tonnes.

Soyoil output is now pegged at 6.0 million tonnes, up from 5.58 million last year but down from the January figure of 6.15 million tonnes. The soyoil export view was pared to 2.8 million tonnes from 2.9 million tonnes.