March 2, 2004

Argentina's 2003-04 Soy Crop Yields Forecast Down
 
Forecast yields of Argentina's 2003-04 Soy Crop has been lowered as a result of dry weather in the country, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange reported over the weekend.
 
"In center-north and northeastern parts of Cordoba and central parts of Santa Fe, first- and second-crop soybeans show a strong decrease of potential yields (between 20% and 30%)," the exchange said. "In other areas, fresh rain in the days ahead could partially detain the decrease in productive capacity."
 
The dryness has been harder on second-crop soybeans, which account about 20% of total production, than on first crop beans, according to the exchange.
 
"In the province of Buenos Aires, the lack of moisture is complicating the final stages of the evolutionary cycle in advanced lots of first-crop beans and is stopping the vegetative growth of the second crop," the exchange said. "The amount of moisture stored in the soil is less than it was a year ago at this time."
 
Based on the lack of soil moisture, the exchange forecast that yields on the 2003-04 soybean crop will decline from those of the previous year.
 
"The magnitude of the decline will depend on what happens with the climate over the next seven days," the exchange said.
 
The exchange did not provide information about last year's yields. Nor did it provide specific estimates for yields related to this year's crop.
 
The exchange says planted area of the 2003-04 soybean crop totals at least 14 million hectares. Last year, farmers planted 12.8 million hectares and produced 35.27 million metric tons of soybeans, according to the exchange.
 
Around 11.3 million hectares correspond to first-crop soybeans while the rest was planted as second-crop soy, the exchange said.
 
In December, the exchange estimated that 2003-04 soybean production will jump 1.1 million tons from a year ago, putting output at about 36.4 million tons.
 
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates 2003-04 soybean production at 36.5 million tons.