March 2, 2004

 

 

Australia Meat Market To Feel Drought Effects For Years

 

The Australian meat markets will take several years to fully recover from the effects of the recent drought, the nation's chief forecaster said today.

 

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), in its annual forecast, painted a bleak picture for the beef, sheep and pig industries through 2004-05.

 

The beef sector is expected to use the coming year to rebuild its herd, which dropped 1.4 million during the drought year of 2002.

 

"Because of the widespread nature of the drought and the biological lags in increasing breeding cow numbers it is expected to take several years before cattle numbers recover to pre-drought levels," ABARE found.

 

The saleyard price of beef is expected to slip 7.4 per cent, with production of beef expected to climb marginally to 1.9 million tonnes.

 

Beef exports, one of the nation's most important export products, are expected to slip $200 million to $3.7 billion.

 

The story is similarly downbeat for the sheep meat and lamb sectors.

 

Lamb saleyard prices are tipped to fall 3.8 per cent, although sheep prices should lift by 2.3 per cent.

 

The retail price for lamb are expected to fall 3.8 per cent, although lamb consumption is tipped to dropped slightly.

 

"A key factor in the outlook for sheep meat is the expectation that adult sheep slaughter will decline in the short term and remain historically low over the next five years," it said.

 

The pigmeat sector has suffered from the drought's upward pressure on grain prices.

ABARE said the sow herd is expected to fall slightly to 316,000 in 2004-05 after a five per cent drop this financial year.

 

Pig saleyard prices are tipped to be down 5.6 per cent, while consumption is expected to fall almost a full kilogram.

 

The only good news has been reserved for poultry farmers, with Australians' love affair with chicken expected to continue.

 

Poultry production is expected to climb 3.3 per cent to 766,000 tonnes this coming financial year, with consumption per person tipped to reach 36.5 kilograms.