March 1, 2012

Due to a marginal increase in planted area and optimal growing conditions, India's 2012-13 wheat production is forecast to rise 0.7% on the year to a record 87.5 million tonnes, the USDA's New Delhi attaché said in a report released Wednesday (Feb 29).

India is heading for its fifth consecutive record wheat harvest this summer, the USDA said, although its projections fall short of the government's preliminary estimate of 88.3 million tonnes, due to "slightly optimistic" yield expectations as high temperatures during harvest may temper yield prospects.

The country's wheat exports during 2012-13 are forecast at 1.5 million tonnes, the USDA said, which will mostly be limited to private exports to neighbouring Bangladesh, the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.

Actual export volumes will depend on the competitiveness of Indian wheat during the marketing year, the USDA added, with the country having sufficient domestic supplies to export 5-6 million tonnes, especially if shipments of government wheat are allowed due to rising international prices.

The USDA expects India to produce 100 million tonnes of rice from 45 million hectares in 2012-13, marginally lower than the estimated record production of 102 million tonnes in 2011-12.

However, India is unlikely to impose export controls on rice in the near future, the USDA said, with exports likely to reach 6.5 million tonnes in 2011-12, consisting of 3.8 million tonnes non-basmati and 2.7 million tonnes basmati. It added that the country's rice exports for 2012-13 are likely to be six million tonnes.