February 28, 2014

Thai corn price seasonally higher due to low production (week ended Feb 17, 2014)
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive
 
 
Price Summary
 
Local corn price continues to increase during low corn production season, while feed mill demand is stable. In the last four weeks, corn price increased from THB 7.80/kg (US$0.24/kg),  to THB 8.10 (US$0.249/kg),  to THB 8.20 (US$0.252/kg),  to THB 8.60 (US$0.264/kg),  and to THB 8.80/kg (US$0.27/kg),-in line with Chicago's corn price trend that was driven by wheat prices.
 
Soybean price edged lower to THB 20.50/kg (US$0.63/kg) while soymeal price stayed the same at THB 19.25/kg (US$0.59/kg). The price trend of this group remained stable.
 
Fishmeal demand matched market supply, keeping its price stable at THB 31.70 (US$0.975/kg) while market expectation of local fishmeal production this year may not differ much from last year or may be lower. Many fishmeal factories had gone out of business after failing to improve to international production standards.
 
Price of rice by-products is stable. Since October 2013, the Thai government has yet to fulfil a rice pledge, failing to release approximately 18 million tonnes of paddy rice from their stockpile. This resulted in rice farmers from many provinces gathering in Bangkok at the Ministry of Commerce to ask for liquidation of the rice pledge.
 
This situation may force the Thai government to release paddy rice soon, and this will affect rice by-products supply in the near term.  Prices for rice by-products last week such as white rice bran and rice bran residue are THB8.20/kg (US$0.252/kg) and THB6.50/kg (US$0.20/kg) respectively, as compared to THB7.70/kg (US$0.236/kg) and THB6.80/kg (US$0.21/kg) last week.
 
 
Market analysis
 
Corn imports to cope with low production from March to July will be considered by the next government, after the cabinet approved 450,000 tonnes of imports from March to August 2013 under the Aeyawadee-Chaopraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation (ACMECS) and the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA).
 
This season's (2013/2014) local corn demand is expected to be about 4.72 million tonnes, while total corn production for 2013/14 is expected to rise to 4.87 million tonnes from last season's (2012/13) 4.78 million tonnes.

The Thai fishmeal industry has made improvement in production with acceptable quality standards. Currently, there are 40 GMP (Good Manufacturing Practice) and HACCP (Hazard Analysis Critical Point) qualified Thai factories, with 60 pending approval of GMP standard.
 
Currently, 25% of Thai fishmeal factories produce more than 60% of protein fishmeal. Production in 2013 was just about 0.47 million tonnes. This year's production will be higher if the situation of Early Mortality Syndrome outbreak improves. Thai fishmeal exports will also have to compete with Peru's in price after last year's exports suffered due to higher export prices than Peru.
 

 FEED GRAINS

PRICE as of  Feb 10
(in Thai baht/kg)

PRICE as of  Feb 17
(in Thai baht/kg)

Changes
(in Thai baht/kg)

Corn  

8.60

8.80

0.20

Cassava roots

2.14

2.27

0.13

White Broken Rice A.1 Super(USD/tonne)

311.00

313.00

2.00

White rice bran

7.70

8.20

0.50

Rice bran residue 

6.80

6.50

-0.30

Soybean 

19.33

19.25

 -0.08

Soybean meal 

20.50

20.50

 ---

Fishmeal(protein more than 60%)

31.70

31.70

---

US$1=THB 32.62 (Feb 28, 2014)

 

 


All rights reserved. No part of the report may be reproduced without permission from eFeedLink.