February 28, 2005

US dominates world grains trade

The world trade in coarse grains is dominated by the United States, particularly in corn. The US share of world corn trade is expected to grow to nearly 73 percent by 2014 as few countries have similar capabilities to respond to rising international demand for corn.

China's corn exports decline in the baseline, reflecting strengthening domestic demand driven by its rapidly expanding livestock sector.

Although China's share of world exports has fallen, the US corn sector still faces increased competition from non-EU Eastern Europe and Argentina, which also increase their shares of the global corn market.

Argentina, with a small domestic market, remains the world's second largest corn exporter. As Argentina's economy expands, investments and planted area gradually return to corn production over the baseline, with exports projected to rise from 11 million to nearly 15 million tons.

Brazil continues to export about 2-4 million tons of corn in response to niche market demand for non-genetically modified grain, but strong growth in domestic demand from the livestock sector prevents corn exports from increasing.

Corn exports from non-EU Eastern European countries could rise to over 2 million tons by 2014. Favorable resource endowments, increasing economic openness, and greater investment in their agricultural sectors are behind projected gains in production and trade.

South Africa continues exporting some corn to neighboring countries in southern Africa, but amounts remain small (less than 2 million tons).