February 27, 2006

  

CBOT Soy Outlook on Monday: Down 3-5 cents on e-CBOT, Dalian soy

  

 

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were called to open down 3-5 cents per bushel Monday following weak overnight trade and a lower close in China's Dalian soy futures on worries that the spread of a deadly strain of bird flu would depress soy demand, brokers said.

 

In overnight screen trade, the e-cbot May soybean contract settled down 4 1/4 cents at US$5.86 a bushel. May soymeal ended down US$1.30 a short tonne at US$176.00, and May soyoil closed down 0.05 cent at 23.32 cents a pound.

 

The CFTC reported Friday that speculators in CBOT soybean futures for the week ended Feb. 21 turned from net short to net long. They cut their short stance by 10,041 lots to hold 50,631 short positions and increased their long holdings by 6,244 lots to hold 65,152 long positions.

 

For CBOT soybean futures and options combined, speculators were short 50,398 lots, down 7,835 contracts from the week before, and long 62,419 contracts, up 3,225 lots from the previous week.

 

For CBOT soymeal futures only, speculators for the week ended Feb. 21 cut their long and short holdings but remained net long. They decreased their long holdings by 1,811 lots to hold 20,270 long positions and cut their short holdings by 1,269 lots to hold 19,777 short positions.

 

For CBOT soymeal futures and options combined, speculators were long 21,134 lots, down 2,007 contracts, and short 19,588 contracts, down 1,238 lots from the previous week.

 

For CBOT soyoil futures only, speculators for the week ended Feb. 21 turned net long, cutting short holdings by 5,574 lots to 25,327 lots and boosting long holdings by 3,464 lots to 31,055 lots.

 

For CBOT soyoil futures and options combined, speculators also turned net long, decreasing short holdings by 5,765 lots to 24,913 contracts and increasing long holdings by 5,529 lots to 28,480 lots.

 

At China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, the benchmark September 2006 soybean contract settled down RMB19 at RMB2,710 a metric tonne; the benchmark September 2006 soymeal contract ended down RMB32 at RMB2,328/tonne; and the benchmark September 2006 soyoil contract closed down RMB25 at RMB5,157/tonne.

 

China on Saturday reported two new human bird flu cases in Zhejiang and Anhui provinces, respectively, while more European and African countries confirmed outbreaks over the weekend.

 

France on Saturday reported the E.U.'s first case of H5N1 on a commercial poultry farm - in a zone in the southeast of the country that was already under heightened surveillance because H5N1 had previously been found there in dead wild ducks. However, a senior European health official said Monday that the EU was well prepared to combat bird flu to prevent a wide spread of the virus to commercial poultry.

 

In India, millions of people have stopped eating chicken and eggs due to fears of the disease, threatening to derail India's fast-growing INR600 billion poultry industry, sources said. U.S. Midwest cash soybean basis bids were mixed early Monday, cash dealers said.

 

Spot cash soybean bids were down 4 cents Monday in St. Louis, flat in Sioux City, Iowa, and Memphis, Tenn., and up 3 cents in Mankato, Minn., they noted.

 

In global soy export news, China's General Administration of Customs also said Monday that January soybean imports totaled 1.69 million MT, down 8.8% on year while January imports of 156,435 tonnes of soyoil were down 22.2% from the previous year. Soymeal imports jumped almost 2,000%, with 83,915 tonnes imported from India.

 

The 2005-06 soybean harvested continued in Brazil, with the total crop 13% harvested versus last year's 13% and 85 on average, analysts said.

 

Forecasts called for mostly dry conditions through Wednesday in Rio Grande Do Sul, Parana, Mato Gross and Mato Grosso Do Sul, according to Meteorlogix weather service.

 

In Argentina, scattered to widely scattered light showers were expected in Cordoba, Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires during the next 48 hours, Meteorlogix said.

 

In Malaysia, crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended higher after speculative buying boosted the market to a near 1-1/2 year high. The benchmark May contract ended at MYR1,510 a metric tonne, up MYR18 from Friday.

 

In Rotterdam, spot soybean prices were firm while soymeal prices were weak, cash sources said.