February 26, 2025

 

Steady UK pork production expected this year

 

 

UK pork production is expected to remain steady in 2025, according to the latest analysis by the United Kingdom's  Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).

 

Limited growth in breeding herd numbers and continued pressure on export markets due to geopolitical tensions are also forecast.

 

However, a thriving foodservice sector and evolving consumer demand for convenient, affordable cuts of pork provide opportunities for the industry to navigate challenges in the year ahead.

 

"While the pork market faces challenges such as fluctuating export demand and rising geopolitical uncertainties, we are seeing signs of resilience," said Freya Shuttleworth, AHDB's senior analyst (livestock). "The continued growth of the foodservice sector and increasing consumer interest in value-driven cuts of pork offer potential areas for optimism. The industry's focus must remain on meeting the evolving needs of consumers while maintaining high standards of welfare and sustainability."

 

UK pork production is anticipated to remain stable in 2025, with clean pig slaughter volumes reaching approximately 10.32 million head, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to 2024.

 

Average carcase weights are expected to remain at around 90kg, in line with performance from previous years. While the size of the UK breeding herd is forecast to rise by 1% to 330,000 head by June 2025, long-term growth remains limited, with the herd expected to return to 2023 levels by 2027.

 

Despite these relatively small changes, productivity improvements have been a driving force in the sector. AHDB's quarterly estimated cost of production has seen a slight decrease over the course of 2024, contributing to positive industry sentiment and net margins of £15 (US$18.96) per head.

 

However, ongoing uncertainty, including economic challenges and fluctuating costs, continues to impact producer confidence, especially as some producers exit the industry.

 

The outlook for trade in 2025 is mixed, with geopolitical tensions and market volatility continuing to affect UK exports.

 

The European Union remains the UK's most significant trading partner, with over 99% of UK pork imports and over 42% of exports coming from the region. However, demand from the EU is expected to decrease as EU consumption weakens.

 

Despite these challenges, there are brighter prospects in markets like Southeast Asia, where African swine fever (ASF) has impacted local production. The relisting of two UK processing sites for China and the potential for stronger trade ties with countries like South Korea could help offset weaker demand from traditional markets.

 

Retail demand for pork is likely to remain under pressure in 2025 due to economic challenges and fluctuating consumer perceptions around the health credentials of pork.

 

However, the continued growth of the foodservice sector, particularly in dining out and on-the-go meal occasions, presents a valuable opportunity. Consumers are seeking affordable, convenient meals, with pork well-suited to quick, tasty options such as sandwiches and savoury pastries.

 

"As we continue to face economic pressures, promoting the nutritional benefits and versatility of pork will be key in encouraging consumers to incorporate more pork into their meals," said Vanessa Adamson, AHDB's Retail & Consumer Insight Manager. "With increased interest in affordable meal options and a growing foodservice sector, there are significant opportunities to expand pork consumption, particularly through convenient products like sausages, burgers, and pre-prepared cuts."

- AHDB