February 24, 2026

World's wheat production faces major threats of heat and drought during flowering, research states

New research shows that short periods of extreme heat and drought during flowering could become one of the biggest threats to global wheat production in the coming decades.

As the climate changes, farmers around the world are facing more frequent and intense weather extremes.

While drought has long been seen as the main danger to wheat crops, a new study, published in the journal Climatic Change, suggests that heat waves at a key moment in the plant's life cycle may soon pose an even greater risk.

Dr. Mikhail Semenov, mathematical modeler and emeritus fellow at Rothamsted Research, said, "Flowering is one of the most sensitive stages in wheat development. It's when the plant sets grain, which ultimately determines yield. Even a few days of very high temperatures or severe water stress at this stage can reduce grain numbers and significantly cut final harvests."

The study used advanced climate projections and the Sirius wheat model to estimate how short, intense heat waves and droughts during flowering could affect global wheat yields in the future.

The results show a clear shift in risk—drought during flowering currently causes more yield loss than heat. However, its overall global impact is expected to decline slightly in the future.

Heat stress during flowering, on the other hand, is projected to become much more damaging. By 2050, global yield losses linked to extreme heat at flowering could rise by about one-third. By 2090, those losses could increase by more than three-quarters.

While drought remains important, extreme heat at flowering is set to become a growing challenge for wheat growers worldwide. Professor Malcolm Hawkesford, leader of the "Delivering Sustainable Wheat" Institute Strategic Program at Rothamsted Research, said: "This kind of modeling study provides critical information on, and pointers to, the traits we should be breeding for now, ready for predicted future climate conditions."

- Rothamsted Research