February 24, 2012

 

Global corn plantings to set new high in 2012-13

 

 

Corn sowings worldwide are forecast to reach a record high of 167 million hectares in 2012-13, led by a 2.1% rise in sowings in the US, the International Grains Council said.

 

The intergovernmental group, in its first estimates for next season, forecast corn area rising 0.6% from this year.

 

In barley, "the spring barley area in particular [will] expand after a very harsh season for winter crops", the IGC said, flagging concerns over the prospect for winter wheat.

 

Indeed, the council trimmed to 1.5%, from 1.7%, its expectation for growth in world wheat area in 2012-13.

 

"While crops are mostly developing well in the northern hemisphere, dryness continues to raise concerns about prospects in parts of the US and Ukraine," the council said.

 

For what wheat is retained, overall productivity prospects had deteriorated.

 

"The average yield may not match the previous year's high and global production is therefore projected to fall by 15 million tonnes, to 680 million tonnes," the IGC said in a monthly report.

 

However, supplies would be supported by inventories left over from this season, for which carryout stocks were upgraded by seven million tonnes to a record 211 million tonnes.

 

Furthermore "bigger corn and barley crops will likely reduce use of feed wheat" in 2012-13, meaning the season will witness only "a modest decline" in global wheat inventories.

 

The data come amid a rash of initial forecasts for grain sowings for 2012-13, with the USDA unveiling domestic estimates on Thursday, and a series of analysts making independent predictions.

 

Morgan Stanley estimates world wheat area, on a harvested basis, rising 1m acres to 529 million acres, but production falling 2.2% to 24.9 billion bushels.

 

Nonetheless, some South American crops counting as 2011-12 have not been planted yet, including Brazil's so-called safrinha, or winter, corn typically planted as a follow-on after soy.

 

A speedy harvest in central Brazil has boosted prospects for safrinha sowings, which have a relatively short planting window, leaving the country on track for record corn production in 2011-12 as a while despite drought damage to the main crop.

 

"Losses of [Brazil's] main corn crop will likely be more than compensated by a larger second crop," the council said, saying output "remains on track" for a record.