February 24, 2006
Wet April could slow soy harvest from Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul
A three-month extended forecast from Brazil's National Weather Service branch in Rio Grande do Sul Thursday suggests that above-average south Atlantic water temperatures will bring more rain and cooler temperatures in March and April.
That forecast could pose harvesting problems as Rio Grande do Sul starts its 2005/06 soy harvest in March and finishes in May.
The National Weather Service, or Inmet, forecast that the eastern part of the state, on the Atlantic seaboard, will more than likely have above-average rainfall in March, but the rest of the state will experience normal rainfall totals.
In April, above-average rainfall is expected in the south and east, with normal rainfall in the rest of the state. Although the south is a small soy producer, the eastern corner of the state has larger soy farms and could be tripped up at harvest time by excessive rainfall.
"Wet weather in April can impede harvesting, so if this forecast ends up being accurate then it will cause problems," said Joel Burgio, an agriculture meteorologist at Meteorlogix in the US.
Rains will slow in May to below historic averages, Inmet forecast, but that will be at the end of Rio Grande do Sul's soy harvest, when rainfall is not as important as it is during the soy pod development phase between December and February.
Rio Grande do Sul is Brazil's third largest soy producer. The state is expected to harvest some 8.04 tonnes of soybeans, according to agri-business consulting firm, AgRural. National 2005/06 estimates for soybeans are put at 58.1 million tonnes, according to January estimates by Brazil's Agriculture Ministry.
Temperature lows for March will be higher than historic averages statewide, and again in April throughout the southern half of the state and the northern peak on the border with Santa Catarina state. The tendency is for a cooling off period statewide in May as winter rolls around the corner in June.
Temperature highs for March will be lower throughout most of the state, with the exception of the northeast, where temperatures will fall within historic averages. April and May high temperatures will be within historic averages statewide, with the exception of the northern half of the state in May, where it is expected to be a bit colder.