February 22, 2007

 

US pork exports expected to rise further in 2007

 

 

US total pork exports, including pork variety meats, set a record high in 2006 for a fifteenth consecutive year and are forecast to extend the string with another gain in 2007.

 

US export sales have experienced sustained growth due to a combination of factors. These include a growing world economy and desire for animal proteins, relatively low cost of production in the US, and the availability of feed grains. Also, pork sales have benefited at times from outbreaks of highly pathogenic bird flu in Asia and eastern Europe along with concerns over bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or mad cow disease.

 

Export sales of pork and pork-variety meats last year totalled just over 1.262 million metric tons, valued at nearly US$2.864 billion, according to the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Pork variety meats include organ meats such as kidneys and hearts.

 

US Department of Agriculture data show that exports last year accounted for more than 14 percent of production.

 

The international markets are the growth area for the US pork industry, said Don Roose, analyst with US Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa. For 2007, Roose predicts a 5-7 percent gain in pork export volume from last year.

 

Glenn Grimes, agricultural economist with the University of Missouri, told Dow Jones Newswires that pork exports contributed US$27.34 per hog slaughtered in the US last year. To put that figure in perspective, the per-head value of pork exports in 1986, just 20 years ago, was only US$1.97, Grimes said.

 

The US pork industry is at least 16 percent larger than it would have been had the 1986 export/import status remained in place, Grimes said. Taking a different look at the impact that export sales have made on the nation's pork industry, Grimes said in 1987, the US was a 7.59 percent-of-production net importer. In 2006, the US held a status as a 9.56 percent-of-production net-exporter.

 

The turnaround that occurred over the past 20 years is even more impressive since pork production in 2006 was 47 percent larger than in 1987. The number of hogs slaughtered was up by 36 percent, and heavier carcass weights made up the balance of the increase, he said.

The USDA is forecasting 2007 pork exports to be up 5.3 percent from a year ago, according to its latest monthly meat supply/demand report released Feb 9. The USMEF is forecasting growth at 4.4 percent.

 

If the percentage increase in the value keeps pace with expected growth in volume, the value of pork exports in 2007 could reach US$3 billion for the first time ever.

 

If the US$3 billion in pork sales is attained this year, the value would be up 158 percent from just 10 years ago, said Erin Daley, Manager, Research and Analysis with the USMEF.

 

Mexico, Japan and Canada were the top three international customers for US pork and pork-variety meats last year. Combined, they accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total volume. Japan ranked as no. 1 in terms of value, followed by Mexico and Canada.