February 21, 2014

Due to lack of precipitation this year, a serious threat of drought is already affecting Turkey's agriculture sector, with the 2014 wheat harvest at particular risk of underperforming and possible crop failures in a number of grain-growing regions.

This is according to a recent report published by the Oxford Business Group (OBG), a global publishing, research and consultancy firm.

Data obtained from the OBG show that poor rainfall this year may see Turkey's agricultural exports down and imports up. Turkey harvested a record 22.1 tonnes in 2013, according to the Turkish Statistics Institution (TurkStat). While much of this is for domestic consumption, Turkey exports to a number of countries both in the region and further afield, including to markets in Asia, with the Philippines and Indonesia among its major buyers, the report stated, adding that Turkey is an importer of some varieties of wheat, in particular durum wheat, used for producing pasta.

Turkish Union of Agricultural Chambers (TZOB) President Şemsi Bayraktar recently said that the lack of rain and snow has already affected grain yields, adding that farmers are looking forward to rain coming as soon as possible.

The majority of Turkey's wheat crop is planted in early to mid-winter, germinating before the coldest part of the season, then lying dormant until early spring before resuming its growth cycle, with harvests in June or early July. Given the timing of the planting, it is more dependent than most other crops on winter rains and snowfall to provide water for initial growth and then on further rains in spring to sustain growth.

According to data released by the State Waterworks Authority (DSİ), the average cumulative precipitation between October 1, 2013, and January 2, 2014, across Turkey decreased drastically as compared to previous years and experts are concerned because Turkey faces a serious threat of drought this year due to the lack of rain and snow. In the last three months of 2013, rainfall across the country was down 31.4% on average, and almost 42% below the figure for the preceding year.

The shortage of water in some parts of the country is becoming acute. Yavuz Tezcan, the head of the Ceyhan Chamber of Agriculture in the southern province of Adana, recently warned that up to half the expected harvest of two million tonnes of wheat in the Çukurova region, which accounts for some 10% of Turkey's wheat production, could be lost if there are no significant rainfalls in February. Tezcan added that the province of Konya, traditionally the centre of the country's wheat belt, has also been affected by drought.

Over the past year the value of the lira has dropped by around 25% against the dollar, the main currency for international grain sales, while the expected poor harvest will mean Turkey will not be able to rely on exports to offset these costs. Analysts expect the upward pressure on inflation to continue in upcoming months due to the continuing drought and exchange rate transitivity.