February 21, 2007

 

ASA weekly: Net farm income to increase 10 percent in 2007; Soy to remain Brazil's main biodiesel feedstock
 

 

US farmers and ranchers are forecast to earn US$66.6 billion in net farm income this year, up 10 percent from last year, according to USDA's first farm income forecast for 2007.

 

Department economists see cash receipts for crops and livestock hitting a record-high US$258.7 billion this year, far surpassing the 10-year average of US$211.4 billion. However, cash expenses for farms and ranches also are forecast to hit a record high of US$222.6 billion in 2007.

 

According to USDA, this year's market prices for corn, wheat and soybeans are forecast to remain above 2006 levels, which themselves were strong, especially in the last half of the year. This would also result in higher prices for sorghum and hay.

 

The farm income forecast reflects an expected increase in the production of corn and declines in the production of soybeans and sorghum as high corn prices encourage farmers to switch production to corn. However, the risk of losing the benefits of a corn/soybean rotation in the control of pests and disease will restrain the substitution, says the agency.

 

Meanwhile, Arkansas farmers grow enough soybeans to supply the feedstock necessary for biodiesel fuel production, but there are too few crushers and processors to grind the beans into oil, the state agriculture secretary said, according to the Arkansas News Bureau.

 

One component of a US$20 million biodiesel incentive bill, which passed the Arkansas House last week offers grants to companies to buy the equipment needed to grind the soybeans into oil in the state.

 

House Bill 1379 by House Speaker Benny Petrus (D-Stuttgart), is intended to open new markets for farmers in the state, protect the environment and reduce the state's dependency on foreign oil and gasoline. The bill passed the House and is now being debated in the state Senate.

 

Soybeans to remain main source of Brazilian biodiesel

 

Soy is likely to remain Brazil's main biodiesel feedstock for the next four to five years, despite fears of soaring oilseed prices and keen local interest in non-food crops such as the physic nut.

 

Soyoil currently accounts for about 90 percent of Brazil's total vegetable oil production.

 

The physic nut is a leafy tree that blooms with pale, green fruit hanging off twigs or in bunches like gargantuan grapes. However, the tree has been so little researched it is not yet officially recognised by the Brazilian government as a recommended biodiesel feedstock.

 

US & South America Soybean/Products Balance

United States 

Argentina

Brazil

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

Soybeans

thousand tonnes

 Carryin

3,059

6,960

12,229

2,434

514

579

3,400

1,440

514

 Production

85,013

83,368

86,770

39,000

40,500

44,000

53,000

55,000

56,000

 Imports

152

92

109

708

900

950

353

60

100

 Crush

46,160

47,320

48,444

29,560

32,600

36,000

29,730

28,200

27,300

 Exports

30,011

25,778

29,937

10,548

7,200

7,350

22,798

25,450

26,700

 Other

5,093

5,093

4,521

1,520

1,535

1,566

2,785

2,336

2,024

 Usage

81,264

78,191

82,902

41,628

41,335

44,916

55,313

55,986

56,024

   Carryout

6,960

12,229

16,206

514

579

613

1,440

514

590

Soymeal

thousand tonnes

 Carryin

191

156

285

1,350

1,187

1,549

870

640

490

 Production

36,936

37,414

38,484

23,347

25,487

28,400

22,928

21,850

21,435

 Domestic use

30,446

30,097

30,754

537

575

650

9,162

9,950

10,200

 Net Exports

6,525

7,188

7,743

22,973

24,550

27,600

13,996

12,050

11,400

 Usage

36,971

37,285

38,497

23,510

25,125

28,250

23,158

22,000

21,600

   Carryout

156

285

272

1,187

1,549

1,699

640

490

325

Soybean oil

thousand tonnes

 Carryin

488

771

1,370

660

542

659

293

248

450

 Production

8,781

9,250

9,147

5,404

6,200

6,800

5,708

5,403

5,233

 Domestic use

7,910

8,144

8,641

408

458

709

3,059

3,319

3,385

 Net exports

588

507

656

5,114

5,625

6,100

2,694

1,882

2,000

 Usage

8,498

8,651

9,297

5,522

6,083

6,809

5,753

5,201

5,385

   Carryout

771

1,370

1,220

542

659

650

248

450

298

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 08 February 2007

New Accum. New Accum.

Country

Commodity

Sales

Exports

 

Country

Commodity

Sales

Exports

Canada

Soybeans

1.7

82.8

 

Guatemala

Soymeal

3.8

130.8

China

Soybeans

252.1

7799.9

 

Honduras

Soymeal

4.8

45.8

Colombia

Soybeans

22.7

160.3

 

Japan

Soymeal

23

128.4

Egypt

Soybeans

9

444.3

 

Korea, Rep.

Soymeal

0.6

58.2

Germany

Soybeans

121.3

841.8

 

Malaysia

Soymeal

1.6

0.6

Guatemala

Soybeans

29.5

7.9

 

Mexico

Soymeal

75.6

480.5

Indonesia

Soybeans

7.9

621.9

 

Philippines

Soymeal

2.6

140.2

Japan

Soybeans

113

1363.1

 

Russia

Soymeal

5.6

5.6

Mexico

Soybeans

74

1670.6

 

Syria

Soymeal

7.9

7.9

Morocco

Soybeans

25

139.6

 

Canada

Soyoil

1.5

11.2

Netherlands

Soybeans

203.1

1050.4

 

Hong Kong

Soyoil

0.2

14.7

Taiwan

Soybeans

34.2

947.9

 

Qatar

Soyoil

0.2

4

Thailand

Soybeans

6.1

530.4

 

UAE

Soyoil

0.2

0.6

Vietnam

Soybeans

1.9

1.5

 

Export Sales Totals (tmt)

Canada

Soymeal

18.6

487.8

 

Outstanding

Accum.

New

Colombia

Soymeal

6.3

107.8

 

Commodity

Sales

Exports

Sales

Dom. Rep.

Soymeal

5.6

146.1

 

Soybeans

5,862.60

18,219.60

380.7

Ecuador

Soymeal

3.5

28.9

 

Soymeal

1,970.80

2,367.80

170.3

Egypt

Soymeal

7

30.9

 

Soyoil

88.6

268.8

2.3

 

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