February 21, 2007
ASA weekly: Net farm income to increase 10 percent in 2007; Soy to remain Brazil's main biodiesel feedstock
US farmers and ranchers are forecast to earn US$66.6 billion in net farm income this year, up 10 percent from last year, according to USDA's first farm income forecast for 2007.
Department economists see cash receipts for crops and livestock hitting a record-high US$258.7 billion this year, far surpassing the 10-year average of US$211.4 billion. However, cash expenses for farms and ranches also are forecast to hit a record high of US$222.6 billion in 2007.
According to USDA, this year's market prices for corn, wheat and soybeans are forecast to remain above 2006 levels, which themselves were strong, especially in the last half of the year. This would also result in higher prices for sorghum and hay.
The farm income forecast reflects an expected increase in the production of corn and declines in the production of soybeans and sorghum as high corn prices encourage farmers to switch production to corn. However, the risk of losing the benefits of a corn/soybean rotation in the control of pests and disease will restrain the substitution, says the agency.
Meanwhile, Arkansas farmers grow enough soybeans to supply the feedstock necessary for biodiesel fuel production, but there are too few crushers and processors to grind the beans into oil, the state agriculture secretary said, according to the Arkansas News Bureau.
One component of a US$20 million biodiesel incentive bill, which passed the Arkansas House last week offers grants to companies to buy the equipment needed to grind the soybeans into oil in the state.
House Bill 1379 by House Speaker Benny Petrus (D-Stuttgart), is intended to open new markets for farmers in the state, protect the environment and reduce the state's dependency on foreign oil and gasoline. The bill passed the House and is now being debated in the state Senate.
Soybeans to remain main source of Brazilian biodiesel
Soy is likely to remain Brazil's main biodiesel feedstock for the next four to five years, despite fears of soaring oilseed prices and keen local interest in non-food crops such as the physic nut.
Soyoil currently accounts for about 90 percent of Brazil's total vegetable oil production.
The physic nut is a leafy tree that blooms with pale, green fruit hanging off twigs or in bunches like gargantuan grapes. However, the tree has been so little researched it is not yet officially recognised by the Brazilian government as a recommended biodiesel feedstock.
US & South America Soybean/Products Balance
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | |||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
|
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
Carryin |
3,059 |
6,960 |
12,229 |
2,434 |
514 |
579 |
3,400 |
1,440 |
514 |
Production |
85,013 |
83,368 |
86,770 |
39,000 |
40,500 |
44,000 |
53,000 |
55,000 |
56,000 |
Imports |
152 |
92 |
109 |
708 |
900 |
950 |
353 |
60 |
100 |
Crush |
46,160 |
47,320 |
48,444 |
29,560 |
32,600 |
36,000 |
29,730 |
28,200 |
27,300 |
Exports |
30,011 |
25,778 |
29,937 |
10,548 |
7,200 |
7,350 |
22,798 |
25,450 |
26,700 |
Other |
5,093 |
5,093 |
4,521 |
1,520 |
1,535 |
1,566 |
2,785 |
2,336 |
2,024 |
Usage |
81,264 |
78,191 |
82,902 |
41,628 |
41,335 |
44,916 |
55,313 |
55,986 |
56,024 |
Carryout |
6,960 |
12,229 |
16,206 |
514 |
579 |
613 |
1,440 |
514 |
590 |
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
Carryin |
191 |
156 |
285 |
1,350 |
1,187 |
1,549 |
870 |
640 |
490 |
Production |
36,936 |
37,414 |
38,484 |
23,347 |
25,487 |
28,400 |
22,928 |
21,850 |
21,435 |
Domestic use |
30,446 |
30,097 |
30,754 |
537 |
575 |
650 |
9,162 |
9,950 |
10,200 |
Net Exports |
6,525 |
7,188 |
7,743 |
22,973 |
24,550 |
27,600 |
13,996 |
12,050 |
11,400 |
Usage |
36,971 |
37,285 |
38,497 |
23,510 |
25,125 |
28,250 |
23,158 |
22,000 |
21,600 |
Carryout |
156 |
285 |
272 |
1,187 |
1,549 |
1,699 |
640 |
490 |
325 |
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
Carryin |
488 |
771 |
1,370 |
660 |
542 |
659 |
293 |
248 |
450 |
Production |
8,781 |
9,250 |
9,147 |
5,404 |
6,200 |
6,800 |
5,708 |
5,403 |
5,233 |
Domestic use |
7,910 |
8,144 |
8,641 |
408 |
458 |
709 |
3,059 |
3,319 |
3,385 |
Net exports |
588 |
507 |
656 |
5,114 |
5,625 |
6,100 |
2,694 |
1,882 |
2,000 |
Usage |
8,498 |
8,651 |
9,297 |
5,522 |
6,083 |
6,809 |
5,753 |
5,201 |
5,385 |
Carryout |
771 |
1,370 |
1,220 |
542 |
659 |
650 |
248 |
450 |
298 |
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 08 February 2007
New | Accum. | New | Accum. | |||||
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
Canada |
Soybeans |
1.7 |
82.8 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
3.8 |
130.8 |
China |
Soybeans |
252.1 |
7799.9 |
|
Honduras |
Soymeal |
4.8 |
45.8 |
Colombia |
Soybeans |
22.7 |
160.3 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
23 |
128.4 |
Egypt |
Soybeans |
9 |
444.3 |
|
Korea, Rep. |
Soymeal |
0.6 |
58.2 |
Germany |
Soybeans |
121.3 |
841.8 |
|
Malaysia |
Soymeal |
1.6 |
0.6 |
Guatemala |
Soybeans |
29.5 |
7.9 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
75.6 |
480.5 |
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
7.9 |
621.9 |
|
Philippines |
Soymeal |
2.6 |
140.2 |
Japan |
Soybeans |
113 |
1363.1 |
|
Russia |
Soymeal |
5.6 |
5.6 |
Mexico |
Soybeans |
74 |
1670.6 |
|
Syria |
Soymeal |
7.9 |
7.9 |
Morocco |
Soybeans |
25 |
139.6 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
1.5 |
11.2 |
Netherlands |
Soybeans |
203.1 |
1050.4 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soyoil |
0.2 |
14.7 |
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
34.2 |
947.9 |
|
Qatar |
Soyoil |
0.2 |
4 |
Thailand |
Soybeans |
6.1 |
530.4 |
|
UAE |
Soyoil |
0.2 |
0.6 |
Vietnam |
Soybeans |
1.9 |
1.5 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
Canada |
Soymeal |
18.6 |
487.8 |
|
|
Outstanding |
Accum. |
New |
Colombia |
Soymeal |
6.3 |
107.8 |
|
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
Sales |
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
5.6 |
146.1 |
|
Soybeans |
5,862.60 |
18,219.60 |
380.7 |
Ecuador |
Soymeal |
3.5 |
28.9 |
|
Soymeal |
1,970.80 |
2,367.80 |
170.3 |
Egypt |
Soymeal |
7 |
30.9 |
|
Soyoil |
88.6 |
268.8 |
2.3 |