February 20, 2014
India's 2014-15 wheat, rice and corn exports may decline 29%
Due to sluggish global prices, India's exports of wheat, rice and corn are expected to drop sharply by 29% to 13.5 million tonnes in the 2014-15 marketing year, according to a USDA report.
Out of 13.5 million tonnes of cereals, India is expected to export three million tonnes of wheat and 2.5 million tonnes of corn in 2014-15.
Wheat exports are forecast to be halved at three million tonnes in 2014-15, most of which will be private exports with some spill over of government wheat from the existing current two million tonnes quota announced in August 2013.
The report said that with international prices expected to remain depressed during the upcoming marketing year, it will be very difficult for the government to export wheat at US$260/tonne floor price.
On corn exports, the USDA said that shipments are likely to drop further to 2.5 million tonnes in 2014-15 from three million tonnes this year, due to expected strong domestic demand.
The marketing year for wheat runs from April to March and from November to October for corn.
Typically, Indian corn is discounted for quality vis-a-vis other origins and export volumes largely depend on the price competitiveness of Indian corn in the global market.
Any significant improvement in international corn prices or weakening of the value of Indian rupee may improve the export prospects, it added.
USDA expects India's wheat output at 92.46 million tonnes in the ongoing 2013-14 marketing year. The combined shipments of wheat, rice and corn from India are estimated to reach 19 million tonnes in the ongoing 2013-14 marketing year, the report said.