February 20, 2006
ASA Weekly: WTO rules against EU on GMO crop moratorium; Argentine record soy crop expected in 2005/06
WTO rules against EU on GMO crop moratorium
A WTO ruling that the EU broke trade rules by preventing the entry of genetically modified (GM) crops and foods between 1999 and 2003 is expected to prompt an easing in the world's opposition to the technology.
The United States, backed by Canada and Argentina, won its case against the EU that claimed the bloc's stance blocked agricultural exports and was not based on science. The WTO also ruled that the EU moratorium on approving GM organisms violated trade law, while six individual member states--France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Luxembourg and Greece--broke the rules by applying their own bans on GM products.
EC trade spokesman Peter Power insisted, "This interim report is largely of historical interest as this panel will not alter the system or framework within which the EU takes decisions on GM organisms. The approval process and the consumer safety standards applied in the EU may be more stringent than in the US but GM imports to the EU are rising, especially from competitive exporters like Brazil."
The WTO decision will further speed up the EU approval system that is already benefiting from products being judged against a single set of rules, rather than a combination of pre- and post-2004 legislation.
Michelle Gorman, director of regulatory relations at the American Farm Bureau, said, "It will be a valuable case for the US government in protecting the rights of its exporters around the world--there will be an immediate impact on the regulatory environment of biotech."
The WTO will publish its final decision in April.
Argentine record soy crop expected in 2005/06
Argentine is expected to produce about 40 million tonnes of soybeans in 2005/06, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said last week. That total would put production up 3 percent from a year ago, when a record 38.85 million tonnes was produced, the Exchange said.
The Exchange expects farmers to plant a record 15.62 million hectares of soybeans in 2005/06, up from 14.67 million hectares the previous year. The Exchange says farmers keep planting more soybeans each year because they are cheaper to grow than corn, yet sell for more money at the markets.
USDA forecast Argentina's 2005/06 soybean output at a record 40.5 million tonnes, compared with the previous record of 39 million tonnes a year ago.
High prices will lead to increased soy plantings in US
US Department of Agriculture's chief economist Keith Collins last week told the audience at the USDA's annual Agricultural Outlook Forum that despite forecasts for record US soybean stocks, farmers were expected to plant 809,000 hectares more than last year, bringing the total US soy area to 29.9 million hectares for 2006/07.
He said that even with the large supplies, futures prices had remained at high enough levels to spark the increased plantings. Moreover, high energy prices were expected to shift acreage from fertilizer-intensive crop such as corn.
The large planted area, on top of large supplies, is expected to drive prices lower, Collins said. He did not give a price forecast.
Johanns says changes needed in farm policy
US Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, speaking at a conference last week, told his audience of the need for changes to US farm policy. Johanns warned that "the most risky approach may be to just stay the course" and risk lawsuits from other countries who believe US subsidies are against WTO rules.
Regarding Doha Round negotiations, Johanns said an international agreement on agriculture subsidies and tariffs is crucial to the future of farming in the United States and the rest of the world. "There is no other initiative out there that I know of that has more potential" for improving global market access, Johanns said.
In related news, the Congressional Quarterly (CQ) reports that Rep. Jo Ann Emerson of Missouri has become the first Republican to openly call for a one-year extension of the 2002 farm bill.
CQ says other GOP lawmakers have privately voiced their support for an extension, but have yet to join Emerson in backing an extension proposal by Rep. Collin Peterson of Minnesota, the ranking Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee.
EU soymeal and soyoil imports to increase as biofuel production rises
The EU will have to increase its imports of soymeal as more rapeseed is channelled into biodiesel fuel. Last year, better margins led many EU oilseed processors to focus their capacities on rapeseed. The reduced soybean crush resulted in a decline in EU soymeal production.
Meanwhile, despite an expected increase in EU rapeseed meal production the overall oilmeal production in the EU will not be enough to meet the requirements of biofuel producers. EU oilmeal consumption forecast to rise to 55.6 million tonnes, from 54.9 million tonnes in 2004/05, there likely will be a high soymeal import requirement for use in the production of biofuels.
Vegetable oil imports to the EU for biofuel usage could also increase as the bulk of EU biodiesel production is based on rapeseed oil. However, since the second half of last year, the consumption of soyoil has begun to increase for this purpose.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
¡¡ |
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
4,853 |
3,059 |
6,954 |
1,630 |
2,046 |
2,181 |
3,231 |
2,453 |
715 |
|
Production |
66,778 |
85,013 |
82,820 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
40,500 |
50,500 |
51,000 |
58,500 |
|
Imports |
151 |
152 |
109 |
540 |
530 |
485 |
364 |
400 |
425 |
|
Crush |
41,631 |
46,160 |
46,811 |
25,072 |
27,800 |
29,100 |
29,172 |
28,175 |
29,675 |
|
Exports |
23,946 |
30,011 |
27,759 |
6,500 |
9,800 |
10,000 |
19,571 |
22,180 |
25,750 |
|
Other |
3,146 |
5,099 |
4,297 |
1,552 |
1,795 |
1,810 |
2,899 |
2,783 |
3,000 |
|
Usage |
68,723 |
81,270 |
78,867 |
33,124 |
39,395 |
40,910 |
51,642 |
53,138 |
58,425 |
|
Carryout |
3,059 |
6,954 |
11,016 |
2,046 |
2,181 |
2,256 |
2,453 |
715 |
1,215 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
200 |
191 |
155 |
347 |
354 |
560 |
763 |
532 |
200 |
|
Production |
32,953 |
36,938 |
37,116 |
19,807 |
21,806 |
22,900 |
22,920 |
22,200 |
23,395 |
|
Domestic use |
28,590 |
30,448 |
31,116 |
700 |
850 |
950 |
8,784 |
8,850 |
9,250 |
|
Net Exports |
4,372 |
6,526 |
5,928 |
19,100 |
20,750 |
22,050 |
14,367 |
13,682 |
14,050 |
|
Usage |
32,962 |
36,974 |
37,044 |
19,800 |
21,600 |
23,000 |
23,151 |
22,532 |
23,300 |
|
Carryout |
191 |
155 |
227 |
354 |
560 |
460 |
532 |
200 |
295 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
676 |
488 |
771 |
99 |
74 |
100 |
150 |
93 |
95 |
|
Production |
7,748 |
8,781 |
9,011 |
4,513 |
5,115 |
5,354 |
5,258 |
5,120 |
5,371 |
|
Domestic use |
7,651 |
7,910 |
8,142 |
140 |
145 |
155 |
2,710 |
2,848 |
2,870 |
|
Net exports |
285 |
588 |
583 |
4,398 |
4,944 |
5,224 |
2,605 |
2,270 |
2,516 |
|
Usage |
7,936 |
8,498 |
8,725 |
4,538 |
5,089 |
5,379 |
5,315 |
5,118 |
5,386 |
|
Carryout |
488 |
771 |
1,057 |
74 |
100 |
75 |
93 |
95 |
80 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 09 February 2006 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
3.40 |
143.30 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
22.50 |
522.90 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
360.30 |
6660.90 |
|
Morocco |
Soymeal |
4.90 |
9.40 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
10.60 |
81.10 |
|
New Zealand |
Soymeal |
11.50 |
23.90 |
|
Costa Rica |
Soybeans |
28.20 |
107.80 |
|
Nicaragua |
Soymeal |
2.80 |
22.30 |
|
Denmark |
Soybeans |
3.70 |
50.70 |
|
OPAC Is. |
Soymeal |
0.20 |
4.00 |
|
Egypt |
Soybeans |
8.30 |
401.50 |
|
Panama |
Soymeal |
7.50 |
57.80 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
69.80 |
568.80 |
|
Philippines |
Soymeal |
31.50 |
206.90 |
|
Italy |
Soybeans |
0.10 |
20.40 |
|
Salvador |
Soymeal |
1.00 |
50.70 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
9.50 |
1418.60 |
|
Venezuela |
Soymeal |
4.00 |
20.00 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
129.50 |
1624.80 |
|
Barbados |
Soyoil |
0.20 |
0.60 |
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
97.80 |
940.90 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
1.80 |
10.90 |
|
Thailand |
Soybeans |
0.50 |
219.70 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soyoil |
0.10 |
0.70 |
|
Turkey |
Soybeans |
0.30 |
297.80 |
|
Kuwait |
Soyoil |
0.10 |
1.10 |
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
6.00 |
408.00 |
|
Trinidad |
Soyoil |
0.10 |
0.60 |
|
Chile |
Soymeal |
27.50 |
33.30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Egypt |
Soymeal |
7.00 |
52.40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
8.50 |
101.30 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.30 |
8.60 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
Indonesia |
Soymeal |
1.20 |
14.60 |
|
Soybeans |
3,788.40 |
14,945.60 |
529.60 |
|
Jamaica |
Soymeal |
1.60 |
42.70 |
|
Soymeal |
1,361.30 |
2,376.20 |
151.50 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
9.90 |
168.40 |
|
Soyoil |
85.70 |
111.60 |
-3.30 |
