February 15, 2021

 

Philippines sees likelihood of broiler meat shortage by end of 2021

 

 

The Philippines could see a potential deficit in the supply of broiler meat by the end of this year.

          

In a text exchange, Reildrin Morales, the new director of the Department of Agriculture's (DA) Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI), said there is now a potential shortage in the supply of day-old chicks (DOC) - which are raised to become broilers - due to "controls made in the breeder population last year."

          

"The price of chicken went down last year because of COVID-19 related measures, which forced closures of markets… that is why breeders cut down their production. We will (discuss) this matter as early as (possible)," Morales said.

         

Based on data obtained by Business Bulletin, the DA has drawn three possible scenarios for the supply of broiler meat this year, one of which shows a potential deficit of 50,168 tonnes, which is equivalent to 12 days long of tight supply by year-end. This will happen if the supply remains low at 1.45 million tonnes and demand goes up to about 1.50 million tonnes.

        

In another scenario, the DA is seeing stagnated supply and demand at the expected 1.34 million tonnes for an excess of 111,652 tonnes of broiler meat in carcass that will be good for 27 days of supply.

         

If the demand ends up lower than expected, or around 1.17 million tonnes, the surplus will be much higher at 273,472 tonnes or 67 days.

        

While the government is slowly reopening the economy with more public establishments allowed to resume business, the first scenario is expected to more likely happen. 

        

Morales said that higher demand for poultry meat is expected due to the low supply of pork, which was badly hit by African swine fever (ASF).

         

United Broiler Raisers Association (UBRA) president Bong Inciong described the situation as a "crisis" given that "the substitution pressure from pork and the current issues with DOC supply."

        

Based on UBRA's weekly monitoring, the farmgate price of DOC is now at an all-time high of ₱48-50 (US$1-1.04) apiece, compared to its price of ₱14 -20 (US$0.29-0.42) apiece during the first weeks of 2020. Inciong said it is likely that the country's chicken production will remain low during the first half of this year.

        

 "Anecdotal information is that there was difficulty in the loading of parent stocks in the second and third quarters of 2020. There were also cancellations in the loading of replacement flocks. Add six to eight months, then you have a shortage of day-old chicks," Inciong said.

        

Latest data from Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the country's total chicken production from October to December 2020 was estimated at 484,360 tonne (liveweight), which is lower by 7.9% compared with the previous year's same quarter output of 526,100 tonnes.

          

Compared with their levels in the same period of a year earlier, 12 regions also posted decreases in production during the period, with CALABARZON recording the biggest decline of 17%. In particular, this region registered a production of 81,660 tonnes (liveweight) this quarter, from the 98,390 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2019.

        

Morales said the DA will meet with representatives from the broiler sector to address challenges in poultry production.

         

Inciong said the government should lift the price ceiling of ₱160/kg (US$3.34) on chicken.

         

"If they still insist on ₱160.00, then they should subsidise retailers accordingly. This is in fairness to the sector as the hog sector is now being subsidised," Inciong said, referring to the transport subsidy that the DA is now offering to hog raisers.

 

- Manila Bulletin