February 14, 2007

 

Brazil's Mato Grosso sees lower soy yields; other states up

 

 

Despite guaranteed losses to the soy crop in Mato Grosso, Brazil's leading soy producing state, yields throughout the south and north-east are seen breaking records this season, farm consulting firm Agroconsult said Tuesday (Feb 13).

 

"Mato Grosso is going to be inundated with rain over the next three weeks. That farms will lose production is a guarantee, but we are looking at excellent productivity in the south and north-east that could make up for any declines in Mato Grosso," Agroconsult consultant Fabio Meneghin told reporters on Tuesday.

 

Agroconsult starts its fourth annual crop tour later this month. The group put Brazil's 2006/07 soy crop at 56.6 million tonnes, compared with 52.6 million tonnes harvested in the 2005/06 crop.

 

Last month, Agroconsult put Mato Grosso soy crop yields over 3,000 kilogrammes per hectare, revising the number down to 2,910 kg in the most recent estimate released on Tuesday.

 

Meanwhile, southern states like Parana are expecting yields over 3,000 kg per hectare, compared with just 2,400 kg per hectare in the 2005/06 season.

 

In the north-eastern states, like Bahia, average yields are put between 2,300 and 2,500 kg per hectare compared with under 2,300 kg averages in the 2005/06 season, Meneghin said.

 

"We expect upside surprises in Mato Grosso do Sul, the southern states and the northeast, with the potential for bad news coming from Mato Grosso," Meneghin said.

 

Mato Grosso accounts for roughly 26 percent of Brazil's soy crop.

 

The Mato Grosso Soy Growers Association told Dow Jones Newswires on Monday that farmers in the northern part of the state were estimating early crop losses of 10 percent.

 

Agroconsult put Mato Grosso's total output at 14.7 million tonnes in its recent estimate, compared with over 15 million tonnes in previous estimates.

 

Brazil's no. 2 producer, Parana, should harvest 11.9 million tonnes and its no. 3 producer, Rio Grande do Sul, should harvest 9.2 million tonnes.

 

Brazil is the world's no. 2 soy producer behind the US.