February 12, 2009

South Africa's 2008/09 wheat crop is estimated at 2.1 million tonnes, 9.2 percent more than the previous season, according to a US Department of Agriculture attache report posted Wednesday (February 11) on the Foreign Agricultural Services Web site.

However, about 1.180 million tonnes of wheat still need to be imported to meet local demand. With the decline in the wheat price the prospect for profitable wheat production in South Africa is uncertain.

This will result in producers scaling down production in the 2009/10 marketing year.

The size of the 2008/09 marketing year corn crop in South Africa is estimated at 12.7 million tonnes, 84.5 percent more than the previous season. As a result, South Africa will have approximately 2.1 million tonnes of corn available for export. With 2.6 million hectares planted with corn for the 2009/10 marketing year and the favourable weather outlook for the rest of the production season, the conditions are ripe for South Africa to produce back-to-back corn surpluses. South Africa decreased its rice imports by more than 30 percent mainly due to the increase in the global price of rice and to the availability of rice because of export restrictions implemented by many rice producing countries.

The 2008/09 marketing year wheat crop in South Africa is estimated at 2.1 million tonnes on 748,000 hectares. This represents a 9.2 percent increase in production from the 1.9 million tonnes produce for the 2007/08 marketing year on 632,000 hectares. For the 2008/09 marketing year, however, the yield at 2.78 tonnes per hectare is lower than the 3.02 tonnes per hectare for the 2007/08 marketing year. With the decline in the wheat price, prospects for profitable wheat production in South Africa are uncertain. This will result in producers scaling down production for the 2009/10 marketing year. Total consumption of wheat for the 2008/09 marketing year is estimated at 2.843 million tonnes, 1.4 percent less than the previous season. This means that about 1.180 million tonnes of wheat will need to be imported to meet the domestic demand.

The size of the 2008/09 marketing year commercial corn crop is estimated at 12.7 million tonnes. The white corn crop was finalized at 7.5 million tonnes on 1.7 million hectares which is 75 percent more white corn than the previous year. The yellow corn crop was finalized at 5.2 million tonnes on 1.1 million hectares which is 86 percent more than the previous season. For the 2009/10 marketing year it is estimated that about 2.6 million hectares of corn were planted, which is 7.3 percent or 203,000 hectares less than the previous season. However, above-average rainfall is expected during the summer in the grain production region which will result in South Africa producing back-to-back corn surpluses. The area to be planted with corn later in 2009 will be influenced in a positive manner by a combination of the relative high local price levels, the current above average expected crop and an expected decrease in input cost.

The human consumption of white corn in South Africa increased by 15.5 percent in the first eight months of the 2008/09 marketing year compared to the same period in the 2007/08 marketing year. For the 2008/09 marketing year, South Africa will have approximately 2.1 million tonnes of corn, mainly white corn, available for export.

The value of rice imports by South Africa have almost doubled from 2007 to 2008 while the quantity imported decreased by more than 30 percent. This decrease in rice imports was mainly due to the huge increase in the global price of rice and also the availability of rice due to export restriction implemented by many rice producing countries including India, South Africa's second largest source of imports.