February 12, 2008

Global wheat forecast slightly higher on Argentina's raised estimates

The 2007/08 global wheat production has been raised 0.6 million tonnes this month according to the Economic Research Service (ERS) of the USDA.

The lower wheat forecast in Afghanistan was offset by increases in Argentina and FSU-12. Production for Argentina was raised 0.5 million tonnes on higher harvested area. FSU-12 output was raised 0.9 million tonnes with increases for Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, all based on post-harvest revisions to yields.

The global ending stocks for 2007/08 were lowered 1.2 million tonnes, at 109.7 million tonnes, stocks were projected to dip their lowest level in 30 years.

Lower ending stocks in Canada, FSU-12, and the US are only partly offset by higher stocks in Australia.

Meanwhile, world coarse grain supplies for 2007/08 were projected slightly higher this month as lower corn production is offset by higher sorghum, oats, and rye production.

Corn production has been lowered by 1.0 million tonnes as Argentina is still affected with drought during the first weeks of January, which reduced yield prospects.

Mexico's corn production was lowered 0.7 million tonnes based on lower harvested area.

South Africa's corn output on the other hand was raised 1.0 million tonnes as nearly ideal planting and early growing season weather have supported crop development.