February 12, 2007

 

ASA weekly: Record US soybean exports in 2006-07; Brazil's soy production to reach 56.4 million tonnes; Argentina crush up 14 percent

 

 

US soybean production could reach 86.77 million tonnes in 2006-07, according to the latest USDA S&D report.

 

Soybean exports are projected at 29.9 million tonnes, a record high. However, the estimate is lower than the last USDA forecast because of increased South America supply prospects and reduced global import demand.

 

Global oilseed production for 2006-07 is projected at 397.2 million tonnes while global soybean production is projected at a record 228.4 million tonnes.

 

The Census Bureau reported that the use of refined soybean oil in methyl esters (biodiesel) production rebounded in December to 69,900 tonnes from November's 62,600 tonnes. This is the first monthly increase since Augusts' peak of 95,700 tonnes. However, biodiesel margins remain poor despite an increase in petroleum prices as soyoil prices also increase.

 

The Bush administration wants to impose a new user fee on commercial barges to help pay for the soaring cost of maintaining the nation's river channels. Currently, barge operators pay a tax of 20 cents per gallon on diesel fuel, with the money going into a waterway trust fund. The proposal, included in President Bush's US$2.9 trillion budget proposal, does not specify how fees would be assessed.

 

The USDA is looking into whether it will allow farmers an early release from the land-idling conservation reserve programme (CRP) to increase production area, the agency secretary Mike Johanns said.

 

Brazil's soybean crop to reach 56.4 million tonnes

 

Brazil's Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) forecast soybean production in 2006-07 at 56.4 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes from its early January forecast.

 

The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's crop supply department (CONAB) forecast the same at 56.3 million tonnes. Despite the similar forecast by the two agencies, they differ on last season's production by 1.2 million tonnes with CONAB having the greater of the two estimates for last season of 53.4 million tonnes. IBGE estimates last season's soybean production at 52.2 million tonnes.

 

Meanwhile, the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) estimated the 2007-08 soy crush to be 28.8 million tonnes. Abiove also raised its expectations for the 2006-07 soybean crop to 57.1 million tonnes.

 

Abiove expects 2006-07 soymeal productions to be 22.2 million tonnes and that of soyoil to increase slightly to 5.45 million tonnes, possibly reflecting both demand for biodiesel and higher household incomes.

 

Abiove forecast Brazil's soybean exports to reach 25.5 million tonnes in 2007-08. Brazil exported 24.7 million tonnes in market year 2006-07 and 29.7 million tonnes in market year 2005-06.  Soymeal exports are likely to be 12.3 million tonnes and soyoil exports could reach 1.9 million tonnes.

 

Argentina's crush up 14 percent in 2006
 

Argentina's 2006 soybean crush totaled 32.7 million tonnes, up 14.1 percent from the 28.7 million tonnes crushed in 2005, according to a report from the Agriculture Secretariat.

 

Argentina produced 6.2 million tonnes of soyoil in 2006, up 14.2 percent from a year earlier. Soymeal output totaled 25.5 million tonnes, up 13.2 percent from the 2005.

 

The crush could keep rising over the next couple of years as soybean production rises and crushers boost processing capacity to accompany the bigger harvests.

 

Incidentally, the Argentine government has forced out agricultural secretary Miguel Campos in favour of a ranch leader amid tense talks with farm groups upset with government price controls and export taxes. Campos has been replaced by his former undersecretary, Javier de Urquiza.

 

US & South America Soybean/Products Balance

	United States			Argentina			Brazil
	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.
	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07
Soybeans	thousand tonnes
Carryin	3,059	6,960	12,229	2,434	514	579	3,400	1,440	514
Production	85,013	83,368	86,770	39,000	40,500	44,000	53,000	55,000	56,000
Imports	152	92	109	708	900	950	353	60	100
Crush	46,160	47,320	48,444	29,560	32,600	36,000	29,730	28,200	27,300
Exports	30,011	25,778	29,937	10,548	7,200	7,350	22,798	25,450	26,700
Other	5,093	5,093	4,521	1,520	1,535	1,566	2,785	2,336	2,024
Usage	81,264	78,191	82,902	41,628	41,335	44,916	55,313	55,986	56,024
Carryout	6,960	12,229	16,206	514	579	613	1,440	514	590
Soymeal	thousand tonnes
Carryin	191	156	285	1,350	1,187	1,549	870	640	490
Production	36,936	37,414	38,484	23,347	25,487	28,400	22,928	21,850	21,435
Domestic use	30,446	30,097	30,754	537	575	650	9,162	9,950	10,200
Net Exports	6,525	7,188	7,743	22,973	24,550	27,600	13,996	12,050	11,400
Usage	36,971	37,285	38,497	23,510	25,125	28,250	23,158	22,000	21,600
Carryout	156	285	272	1,187	1,549	1,699	640	490	325
Soybean oil	thousand tonnes
Carryin	488	771	1,370	660	542	659	293	248	450
Production	8,781	9,250	9,147	5,404	6,200	6,800	5,708	5,403	5,233
Domestic use	7,910	8,144	8,641	408	458	709	3,059	3,319	3,385
Net exports	588	507	656	5,114	5,625	6,100	2,694	1,882	2,000
Usage	8,498	8,651	9,297	5,522	6,083	6,809	5,753	5,201	5,385
Carryout	771	1,370	1,220	542	659	650	248	450	298

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 01 February 2007

		New	Accum.				New	Accum.
Country	Commodity	Sales	Exports		Country	Commodity	Sales	Exports
Canada	Soybeans	1.5	81		Mexico	Soymeal	42.8	458.2
China	Soybeans	333.2	7159.1		Morocco	Soymeal	6	23.3
Egypt	Soybeans	9	444.3		Nicaragua	Soymeal	1.3	23.8
Germany	Soybeans	10.3	720.5		Panama	Soymeal	1	46.3
Guatemala	Soybeans	16.2	7.9		Philippines	Soymeal	6	139.7
Indonesia	Soybeans	8.5	614.6		Saudi Arabia	Soymeal	1.3	37.4
Israel	Soybeans	6.9	190.8		Turkey	Soymeal	16	40.8
Japan	Soybeans	12	1291.4		Barbados	Soyoil	0.5	0.6
Mexico	Soybeans	213.6	1659.4		Canada	Soyoil	0.3	9.9
Netherlands	Soybeans	12	847.3		Mexico	Soyoil	1	34.4
Philippines	Soybeans	1	29.2		Salvador	Soyoil	1	6.3
Taiwan	Soybeans	46.9	896.4
Turkey	Soybeans	100	291.5		Export Sales Totals (tmt)
Canada	Soymeal	5.9	460.8			Outstanding	Accum.	New
Colombia	Soymeal	12.5	101.6		Commodity	Sales	Exports	Sales
Guatemala	Soymeal	33.7	130.8		Soybeans	6,778.00	16,120.20	677.6
Honduras	Soymeal	7.6	45.8		Soymeal	1,925.40	2,107.60	160.5
Indonesia	Soymeal	1	22.7		Soyoil	101.4	250.9	37.3