February 10, 2006

Canada's wheat and corn production expected to decline

In USDA's latest Canada grain and feed quarterly report released Feb 3, the total Canadian wheat 2005/06 production rose by 3.5 percent to 26.8 million tonnes. Higher yields compensated for a decline in harvested acreage. The decline in Manitoba production was offset by increased production in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

USDA predicted total wheat production for 2006/07 to decrease to 26.6 million tonnes. Although there will be an increase in acreage, yields are expected to return to trend levels. Total wheat supplies are forecast to rise by about 3 percent to 36.1 million tonnes in 2006 as there will be high carry-in stocks from 2005 and strong production. Wheat exports are predicted to reach 17.5 million tonnes as more high-quality wheat will be available for export.

The report says Canada should see winter wheat production rise because of increased acreage in Ontario, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. 

USDA's estimate of Canadian corn production in 2005/06 rose 7.2 percent to 9.4 million tonnes because of higher yields and a slight increase in harvested acreage. Increased production was seen for Ontario and Manitoba. Total corn imports for 2005 are expected to drop to 2 million tonnes due to production increases, large carry-in stocks and tariffs on US corn imports.

USDA predicts that Canadian corn production will decline in 2006/07 to 8.8 million tonnes due to lower yields. If countervailing and anti-dumping duties remain on US corn imports, total corn imports are predicted to drop to 1.7 million tonnes in 2006.

For the full USDA report, click here.