February 10, 2004

 

 

Brazil Soybean Harvest 3% Complete

 

Farmers had harvested 3% of Brazil's potentially record soybean 2003-04 harvest up till Friday, on a par with the same stage of the last harvest, said the local Celeres agricultural consultancy Monday.

 

The harvest progressed slowly over the last week. The previous Friday, some 2% of the estimated 59.6 million metric ton crop had been harvested.

 

Heavy rains in Mato Grosso, the main soy producing state, hampered harvesting efforts last week. The state normally harvests well ahead of southern states but excess moisture prevented the combine harvesters from getting into the fields and collection only moved forward two percentage points to 8% last week.

 

However, crop development remained slightly ahead of schedule.

 

The majority of the crop has now reached or past they key flowering phase, some 99% compared with 97% at the same time last year.

 

Some 62% of the crop had reached the pod-filling state, ahead of the 43% registered at the same time last year and the five-year average of 55%.

 

Some 9% of the crop is in the maturation phase against 5% at the same time last year and a five-year average of 6%.

 

Climate over the next few weeks will be vital in determining the size of the Brazilian crop.

 

Celeres said concerns continued over the state of the crop in the center- west state of Mato Grosso do Sul after a month of dry weather. Worryingly, weather forecasts indicate the drought will continue.

 

The most affected region is the south of the state, where farmers are talking of losses up to 30%. According to Celeres Analyst Anderson Galvao Gomes, the dry weather came when the crop was most in need of rain.

 

A lack of rain has also been affected soy in west Parana, where reduced yield potential is likely. Rio Grande do Sul has also seen below-average rainfall, but farmers are not yet talking of crop losses.

 

The outlook is reversed in Mato Grosso and rain has already damaged soybeans being harvested in the center-north of the state, said the report.

 

With farmers unsure of the size of the Brazilian crop, the local soy market remained slow last week. As of Friday, 45% of the crop had been sold against 40% at the same point last year and a five-year average of 39%.