February 9, 2012

Brazil's 2011/12 soy crop estimated at 71 million tonnes

Due to the effects of drought, Brazil's 2011/12 soy crop is estimated at 71 million tonnes, down 3% from the previous forecast, agricultural commodities forecasters Agroconsult said on Wednesday (Feb 8).

Agroconsult has teams touring Brazil's grain belt and some early data has prompted the forecasters to lower their outlook due to the effects of the drought that has been hitting the country's southern farm belt.

"Since the first production estimate of our Crop Rally 2012 on January 12, weather conditions in the south deteriorated," Agroconsult's lead analyst Andre Pessoa said.

The change in the forecast was based on data from the more southerly production areas in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul.

No. three soy producer Rio Grande do Sul's output was lowered to 7.75 million tonnes, down 22% from 9.88 million seen in January and 33% from a record 11.62 million harvested last year.

No. two soy producer Parana state is now expected to harvest 12.1 million tonnes, down 9% from January's forecast and 22% from the record 15.42 million tonnes harvested in the state last year. Brazil harvested a record 75.3 million tonnes last season.