February 8, 2007

 

Abiove: Brazil 2007/08 soy crush put at 28.8 million tonnes

 

 

Brazil's market year 2007/08 soy crush was estimated at 28.8 million tonnes on Wednesday (Feb 7) by the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association, or Abiove.

 

The number is slightly higher than the 28.2 million tonnes Abiove estimated on Jan 11.

 

Abiove also raised its expectations for the 2006/07 soy crop, which is currently being harvested. The new estimate of 57.1 million tonnes surpasses the Jan 11 estimate by more than 1.3 million tonnes.

 

Current soy stocks are 2.7 million tonnes.

 

Soymeal production estimates rose to 22.2 million tonnes this month from 21.7 million tonnes in the January-11 estimate. Local consumption for market year 2007/08 was put at 10 million tonnes and has not changed from the previous estimate. There are currently about 878,000 tonnes of soymeal in storage.

 

Soyoil production estimates rose slightly, possibly reflecting both demand for biodiesel and higher household incomes, although no analysis was provided in the Abiove report. Production increases have not risen drastically from previous estimates, currently at 5.45 million tonnes compared with 5.4 million tonnes in the January-11 estimate.

 

Consumption of soyoil was put at 3.55 million tonnes, up roughly 50,000 tonnes from the January-11 estimate.

 

Soyoil stocks were put at 259,000 tonnes.

 

 

Soy exports

 

Abiove maintained its 25.5 million tonne estimate for soybean exports again this month. Brazil exported 24.7 million tonnes in market year 2006/07 and 29.7 million tonnes in market year 2005-06.

 

Soymeal export estimates rose to 12.3 million tonnes from last month's estimate of 11.8 million tonnes.

 

Soyoil exports estimates rose slightly as well, to 1.9 million tonnes from 1.85 million tonnes estimated last month.

 

Exports of both soymeal and soyoil continue to slide from previous years. Brazil exported 12.5 million tonnes of soymeal in market year 2006/07 and 13.9 million in market year 2005/06. The same holds true for soyoil, slipping from 2.3 million tonnes in market year 2006/07 and 2.6 million tonnes in market year 2005/06.

 

 

Monthly soy crushing & purchases

 

Brazil's soy crushers processed 1.7 million tonnes of soybeans in December, the latest month for data. The number is down from 2.1 million in November and 2.3 million in October. Moreover, December's crush was the lowest since 2001, when 1.5 million tonnes of soybeans were crushed for soymeal and soyoil. Brazil harvested a smaller crop in 2005/06, roughly 52 million tonnes.

 

Traders were largely absent from the market in December, acquiring just 511,000 tonnes compared with 827,000 tonnes in November. Volume is also down in comparison to the 531,000 tonnes purchased from farmers in December 2005. December 2006 purchasing volume was the lowest seen since 1999, when 504,000 tonnes were acquired by soy crushers.

 

Soymeal consumption for December was 681,000 tonnes, the lowest since December 2003 consumption totals of 653,000 tonnes. By comparison, November consumption was 804,000 tonnes, one of the highest on the month in six years. The same holds for October consumption of 837,000 tonnes.

 

Soyoil consumption for December was put at 193,000 tonnes, the lowest in six years. By comparison, Brazilians consumed 259,000 tonnes of soyoil in November and 257,000 tonnes in October. Both numbers are four year lows despite expected demand coming on board from Brazil's biodiesel makers.