February 7, 2020

USDA WASDE report to include US-China Phase 1 deal broad goals

A US Department of Agriculture (USDA) top economist said the monthly supply and demand forecast (WASDE) will include US-China Phase 1 trade deal broad goals but will not include China's purchase pledge, reported Reuters.

Robert Johansson, USDA Chief Economist confirmed that specific details in the Phase 1 trade deal will not be included only broad goals which will be considered by analysts for WASDE estimates.

In the US-China Phase 1 trade deal, China has pledged to purchase US$40 billion of United States agriculture commodities between 2020 to 2022.

According to the USDA white paper, the US Trade Representative (USTR) did not release the Phase 1 trade deal's specific purchase commitments publicly, and will not be part of USDA's market analysts and projections.

The white paper also said other unconfirmed points will not be included, such as if retaliatory tariffs will be imposed or the exact timing of the commodity purchases.

China is expected to boost soybean purchases by commodity traders and grain merchants, but United States export sales have remained slow after the Phase 1 trade deal was signed. However, China usually purchases Brazilian soybeans at this time of the year.

The WASDE will include latest export activities, US and overseas crop sizes, as well as other market information. Also taken into account in the monthly report are affects of African swine fever and the coronavirus outbreak.

The report will be released on February 11, 2020.