February 7, 2012

A government official said on Monday (Feb 6) that Argentina's 2011/12 soy harvest will be at least 47 million tonnes while corn will be at no less that 22 million tonnes.

A drought in December and early January chopped crop expectations in Argentina, which is the world's No. two corn exporting and No. three supplier of soy. Original unofficial estimates were as high as 30 million tonnes for 2011/12 corn and 52.7 million tonnes for soy.

"Obviously, we are not going to have the numbers that we had hoped for at the start of the season, but neither will they be as disastrous as some are saying," said a senior government official in a telephone interview with Reuters.

Some private analysts say they expect corn to come in as low as 17 million tonnes while soy has been projected in the low 40s.

Weeks of hot, dry weather punished corn crops just as they were trying to flower in December and early last month. Rains since then have provided some relief, but the drought has dashed hopes that Argentina might replenish global corn supplies after a lacklustre US crop.

More showers are expected in the days ahead, gradually making up for the dry spell, in which an unforgiving Southern Hemisphere summer sun was exacerbated by dryness related to the La Nina weather phenomenon.

"Rain is expected this week and things are normalising in that soils are filling up with moisture," the official said.

Argentina supplies nearly half the world's soymeal, used for animal feed, and soyoil, used for cooking and in the booming international bio fuels sector. The South American country also provides about 12% of soy exports, an important source of protein for an increasingly hungry planet.

As world population grows to an estimated nine billion by 2050, demand for food and animal feed will nearly double, according to the United Nations. Argentina, with its vast, fertile Pampas, will be a key to meeting that demand.