February 3, 2004

Brazil 2003-04 Soybean Production Forecast Up To 59.64 Million MT

Brazil's 2003-04 (October-September) soybean production will be a record 59.64 million metric tons, 13.6% higher than the 52.48 million tons produced in 2002-03, according to the latest estimate released by the local agricultural consultancy Celeres Monday.

The new figure is slightly higher than the 59.38 million tons forecast in December on a larger planted area.

The forecast is still closer to the 60 million tons projected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, despite continuing concerns about Asian rust fungus in the center-west and dryness in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul.

Soybean planted area is expected to reach 21.14 million hectares, up 13.6% from the 18.61 million hectares planted last season. The planted-area estimate was raised by 184,000 ha compared with November, with gains registered primarily in the states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias states.

Mato Grosso will continue to be the main producing state in 2003-04, turning out some 16.3 million tons of soybeans, up 21.6% on the year before. Next will come Parana, where production is pegged up 9.5% at 12.0 million tons.

In the first full estimate for 2003-04 yields, Celeres dropped its Brazil forecast by 12 kilograms per hectare to 2,821 kg per ha, just 0.1% higher than the year before.

According to Anderson Galvao Gomes, Celeres soy analyst, yield estimates were lowered in February for Mato Grosso state, by 99 kilograms per hectare to 3,100 kg per ha, and for Goias, by 48 kg per ha to 2,950 kg per ha. Meanwhile, estimates were raised for Rio Grande do Sul, up 77 kg per ha and Minas Gerais, up 56 kg per ha.

While the yield-sapping Asian rust fungus continues to appear across Brazil, Gomes said that it was too early to talk about major loses as farmers are using  lot of herbicide to control it, with apparently satisfactory results.

More worrying for local farmers is the continuing dryness in the south of the country, he said. Less than 25 millimeters of rainfall fell in the state over the past week, according to the Science and Technology Ministry's weather service, Inpe. But soil moisture in these regions is not yet critical and the crop can still stand a couple more dry days, he said.

Brazil is the world's second-largest soybean producer.