February 2, 2026

 

South Africa's corn exports to increase to 2.2 million tonnes in 2025-26 marketing year

 

 

Corn exports in South Africa are expected to rise to 2.2 million tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year, up from 1.8 million tonnes in 2024-25, driven by strong regional demand and surplus domestic supply following consecutive large harvests, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

 

The USDA attributes the surplus to favorable weather conditions and solid production prospects are shaping the country's corn balance for the coming season.

 

The FAS projects South Africa's corn production for the 2025-26 marketing year, running from May 2026 to April 2027, at 16 million tonnes. This outlook follows an estimated 17 million tonnes harvested in 2024-25, which ranked as the country's third-largest corn crop on record.

 

Planting conditions benefited from La Niña weather patterns, which delivered normal to above-normal rainfall during the main planting window between October and December, supporting crop establishment across major producing regions.

 

Despite the large supply base, domestic corn consumption is expected to show only limited growth. The FAS forecasts total domestic use to increase marginally from 14 million tonnes in 2024-25 to 14.2 million tonnes in 2025-26.

 

South Africa's weak economic growth outlook and persistently high unemployment levels continue to constrain consumer purchasing power and feed demand, keeping per capita corn consumption broadly stable.

 

Feed use remains the largest component of domestic corn utilisation. The record-high yellow corn crop in 2024-25, estimated at 8.2 million tonnes, is expected to reduce the use of white corn in animal feed rations compared with previous projections.

 

Total corn use for feed in the 2025-26 season was projected at 7.1 million tonnes, slightly higher than the seven million tonnes estimated for the previous year. This increase reflects incremental growth in the livestock and poultry sectors rather than a major shift in feeding practices.

 

With domestic demand unable to absorb the available supply, export volumes are forecast to rise. South Africa's corn exports for the 2025-26 marketing year are projected at 2.2 million tonnes, up from 1.8 million tonnes in 2024-25.

 

The FAS revised the 2024-25 export estimate upward on the back of stronger regional demand, particularly from Zimbabwe, which continues to be a key buyer of South African corn.

 

Exports are expected to remain largely focused on regional and selected international markets. The FAS noted that the relatively stronger rand limits South Africa's competitiveness in wider global markets, reinforcing the importance of nearby destinations.

 

In addition to Zimbabwe, major export markets include Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Eswatini, and Vietnam.

 

Stock levels are also projected to remain comfortable. Year-end corn stocks for 2025-26 are forecast at 1.6 million tonnes, sufficient to cover approximately one-and-a-half months of commercial consumption.

 

In 2024-25, stocks are estimated at two million tonnes, representing a recovery of about 200% from the decade-low levels recorded in 2023-24.

 

The FAS highlighted that South Africa does not maintain strategic corn reserves and does not impose regulatory requirements for minimum stock levels.

 

- Milling Middle East & Africa