February 2, 2024

Gro forecasts Brazilian corn yields this year not to meet 2023's levels

Brazil's 2024 corn yields are currently forecast to fall short of 2023's record levels, according to Gro's machine learning-based Brazil Corn Yield Forecast Model.

In addition, an expected drop in planted acreage indicates 2023/24 corn production will decline year over year. Brazil's CONAB estimates 21 million hectares of corn will be planted in 2023/24, down 6% from 2022/23. 

Planting is in the early stages for Brazil's second corn crop, or safrinha, which accounts for some 70% of the country's total corn production. The crop is planted immediately following the soybean harvest to avoid the corn crop maturing in the dry season, which starts in mid-April. If harvesting is delayed for Brazil's soybean crop, which got off to a late start, that in turn could add risk for the corn crop.

Brazil corn's reduced yield outlook comes as the crop is going in the ground amid some of the lowest soil moisture readings in more than a decade. Soil moisture levels began dropping sharply after the first week of December and currently remain near 14-year lows.

Recent rains in Mato Grosso, Brazil's top safrinha corn producer, has boosted soil moisture levels in the state, but this is offset by dry conditions in other areas, including Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, the number two and number three producing states. With only 5% of the safrinha crop in the ground as of January 20, there is still plenty of time for a recovery, but the situation bears monitoring.

February and March weather will be crucial to this year's safrinha crop. If the remainder of Brazil's rainy season delivers enough precipitation to recharge soil moisture, the corn crop could improve — but continued erratic rainfall could cause significant problems. 

Gro's medium-term forecast data currently shows near-to-above-normal rainfall for most of Brazil in February. Central Brazil will receive below-average rainfall in March, while southern Brazil will have above-average rainfall in April, according to Gro data. However, forecasts made months in advance contain a high degree of uncertainty. 

Brazil became the world's top corn exporter in 2023 — surpassing the United States — but a drop in production this year could knock the country from the top spot.

- Gro Intelligence