February 2, 2024

Drop in Argentina's January 2024 corn stocks

Argentina's stocks of corn, controlled by stockpilers, industrialists and exporters, have reached 11.5 million tonnes last January, just below the 11.9 million tonnes from the same month last year and the second-highest volume on record, according to official data as of January 1.

Despite a drought and a drop in shipments in 2023, the country's commercial sector was expected to have enough corn to finish the current season comfortably and kick-start 2024.

Corn production for 2023/24 is estimated at its highest level in history, at 59 million tonnes. Added to a carryover from the previous season, estimated at 4.3 million tonnes, the amount resulted in a total grain availability of 63.3 million tonnes, a record volume that exceeds the previous year's supply by 50%.

The peak months for Argentina's export logistics will occur between the second and third quarters of 2024 when the country will ship 11.5-15.6 million tonnes, respectively.

In particular, based on trend yields, it is projected that exports in the third quarter of 2024 — when late corn is shipped — may reach a record of 15.6 million tonnes, 60% higher than in the same period of the previous year. This implies that in 2024, corn will bring in US$8177 million in export revenue for Argentina, 31% above the previous year.

Anticipated foreign sales for the 2023/24 season totalled 16.13 million tonnes, while exporters have purchased a total of 7.3 million tonnes of corn in the domestic market. Of this latter volume, only 1.6 million tonnes has a firm price, and 5.7 million tonnes have yet to be priced.

- Rosario Stock Exchange