January 31, 2011

 

US winter wheat to cope with major winter storm

 

 

America's arid and hard red winter wheat crop may have to cope with a major winter storm that could possibly receive up to 20 inches of snow which is needed to shield it from a subsequent freeze.

 

Weather models have "changed dramatically overnight", placing a "major winter storm" on the agenda for the US Plains early next week, veteran meteorologist David Tolleris said.

 

The storm, which "will easily be one of the biggest" of the winter, looks set to dump up to 10-20 inches of snow on a swathe Oklahoma, eastern Colorado, northern Texas and Kansas, America's top wheat-growing state, where a dearth of moisture has set back winter seedlings.

 

"I don't know if it is crop-saving moisture, but it will certainly help," Mr Tolleris, head of WxRisk.com, said, estimating the snow at equivalent to some 1-2 inches of rain.

 

However, the danger is if the snow does not fall as deeply as weather models suggest, leaving crops exposed to temperatures which could fall below zero degrees Fahrenheit, which is -18 degrees Celsius or more.

 

"That would really destroy the crop. It's a really big deal," Mr Tolleris said.

 

Winter wheat sowings in Kansas and Oklahoma alone totalled 14.2 million acres, or more than one-third of the national total, official data earlier this month showed.

 

However, Meteorlogix's weather prediction in the central and southern Plains was deemed well overall, and this is likely good news for growers.

 

"This is a beneficial development and is pressing wheat lower," broker US Commodities said.

 

Wheat for March delivery closed down 2.2% at US$9.14 and a quarter a bushel in Kansas, which trades the hard red winter variety over which dryness fears have centred.

 

In Chicago, which trades soft red winter wheat, the March contract ended 2.4% lower at US$8.26 a bushel.