January 30, 2009

IGC sees '08-09 world grain output at 1.788B Tonnes


The International Grains Council Thursday (January 29) forecast 2008-09 world grain output at 1.788 billion tonnes, up 19 million tonnes from its November figure.


This is an increase of 101 million tonnes from 2007-08.


World wheat output forecasts for 2008-09 were increased by 4 million tonnes on November's estimates to 687 million tonnes, an increase of 13 percent on the year.


However, a 1 percent fall in planted area for the following year's crop should lead to lower production, with the IGC forecasting 2009-10 world wheat production at 650 million tonnes.


"The largest declines are expected in the European Union, Russia, Ukraine, the US and China," said the report.


Meanwhile, 2008-09 corn production was revised upwards by 13 million tonnes from November's figures to a record 788 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes more than 2007-08 production, said the report.


Forecast grain consumption was cut by 14 million tonnes on November's estimate - mostly due to a slowdown in ethanol driven demand - to 1.731 billion tonnes. This is still an increase of 3 percent on the year.


World grain stocks estimates have increased to reflect the higher production forecast with IGC seeing stocks at 338 million, compared with 307 million in November and 281 million in 2007-08.


Wheat stocks, forecast at 155 million in 2008-09, up 38 million tonnes on the year, will be the highest in six years, according to the IGC.


The IGC also expects a 2 million ton fall in world grain trade to 228 million tonnes, as a consequence of the global financial crisis.