January 28, 2007

 

ASA weekly: Soy complex close higher on bearish Census crush report

 
The Census crush report pegged December soy crush at 54,400 to 81,600 tonnes below the expected 4.42 million tonnes.

 

This emboldened speculators to return as buyers of the commodities.

 

China has also been considered a substantial buyer due to drop in ocean freight and sell-off of soy futures.

 

The 2008-09 balance sheets for corn, soy and wheat all look to be tight, depending on how 2008 acreage is allocated among these crops. Analysts said that it is likely that soy will be the crop to be in short supply as acreage for corn will be prioritized.

 

Brazil¡¯s soy seems progressing under favorable conditions, but industry analysts said it remains to be seen if the country will expand acreage.

 

March soy futures closed up US$15.06, finishing at US$452.13; May gained US$15.43, closing at US$458.92; and July was up US$15.80, ending at US$464.34.

 

Meanwhile, soy oil stocks also were lower than expected, dropping 5,900 tonnes from the previous month to 1.37 million tonnes.

 

On the other hand, soymeal stocks were larger than expected at 367,000 tonnes as stocks accumulated.

 

The December soy oil yield dropped to 11.45 pounds per bushel from the previous month¡¯s 11.56 pounds, which looks too high by 0.13 pounds given NOPA indications for November.

 

Study indicates soy proteins to boost overall health

 

A new study published recently in Obesity Reviews, said that soy proteins can boost bone health and overall cardiovascular health, reduce cholesterol levels, and aid weight loss.

 

The study also suggests that soy protein may decrease short-term appetite and calorie intake.

 

Mark Cope from the University of Alabama stated that the current data suggest that soy food is as good as other protein sources for promoting weight loss, though additional evidence is needed on this.

 

Soy proteins and soy peptides have gained attention for their hypolipidaemic and hypocholesterolaemic properties, as well as their ability to lower blood pressure, improve arterial compliance and endothelial function, insulin resistance and weight loss in obesity.

 

Cope, in collaboration with David Allison from University of Alabama at Birmingham and John Erdman from the University of Illinois at Champagne-Urbana, collected results from in vitro, animal, epidemiologic, and clinical studies.

 

The researchers found that weight loss was equivalent and, in some cases, equal when using soy protein, dairy milk meal replacements, beef or pork at equal calorie levels.

  

India foresees soy imports to increase by 5 percent as domestic supply lags

 

India is expected to import 5 percent more soy this year to boost supplies in the face of a weak domestic production of oilseeds, according to the country¡¯s leading trade body.

 

According to a report from The Public Ledger, Ashok Sethia, president of the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEAI), informed members that purchases may total 5.9 million tonnes in the year ending October 2008, up from 5.6 million tonnes in the previous oil year.

 

Sethia pointed that the winter oilseed could decline to 9 million tonnes this year, from 9.5 million tonnes last year, as farmers planted less mustard seed crop. The area planted with oilseeds is also down to 8.1 million hectares, against 8.93 million hectares last year.

 

India¡¯s oilseed production for the year could be as low as 26 million tonnes, which is 13 percent lower than the government¡¯s target of 30 million tonnes, Sethia added.

 

The association expects the country to import higher quantity of vegetable oil to bridge the gap between strong demand and tight supply.

 

Edible oil imports in the first two months of the 2007-08 seasons, to the end of December, were 624,102 tonnes according to the SEAI, up from 619,630 in the same period last season.

 

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
	United States			Argentina			Brazil
	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.
	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08
Soybeans	thousand tonnes
Carryin	6,960	12,229	15,589	174	334	2,264	1,638	2,252	2,578
Production	83,368	86,770	70,605	40,500	47,200	47,000	57,000	59,000	62,000
Imports	92	246	163	1,013	2,100	2,200	40	60	100
Crush	47,324	49,160	49,805	32,748	35,600	38,750	28,756	30,500	29,400
Exports	25,579	30,428	27,080	7,130	10,250	10,500	24,770	25,300	30,400
Other	5,288	4,068	4,447	1,475	1,520	1,620	2,900	2,934	2,950
Usage	78,191	83,656	81,332	41,353	47,370	50,870	56,426	58,734	62,750
Carryout	12,229	15,589	5,025	334	2,264	594	2,252	2,578	1,928
Soymeal	thousand tonnes
Carryin	156	285	318	1,686	1,996	1,696	640	794	766
Production	37,416	39,033	39,448	25,582	27,718	30,425	22,300	23,637	22,755
Domestic use	30,114	31,171	32,024	574	618	645	10,073	11,000	11,220
Net Exports	7,173	7,829	7,470	24,698	27,400	29,764	12,073	12,665	11,620
Usage	37,287	39,000	39,494	25,272	28,018	30,409	22,146	23,665	22,840
Carryout	285	318	272	1,996	1,696	1,712	794	766	681
Soybean oil	thousand tonnes
Carryin	771	1,366	1,317	385	487	520	248	300	286
Production	9,248	9,292	9,421	6,169	6,810	7,400	5,521	5,850	5,641
Domestic use	8,146	8,502	9,026	402	600	985	3,172	3,455	3,540
Net exports	507	839	731	5,665	6,177	6,435	2,297	2,409	2,167
Usage	8,653	9,341	9,757	6,067	6,777	7,420	5,469	5,864	5,707
Carryout	1,366	1,317	981	487	520	500	300	286	220

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 17 January 2008
Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports		Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports
China	Soybeans	204.40	6865.10		Jamaica	Soymeal	2.00	31.60
Colombia	Soybeans	8.90	9.80		Japan	Soymeal	4.00	89.90
Costa Rica	Soybeans	9.70	114.00		Mexico	Soymeal	4.50	317.90
Egypt	Soybeans	68.00	302.10		Morocco	Soymeal	4.30	69.80
Germany	Soybeans	54.40	569.30		Panama	Soymeal	56.90	52.50
Indonesia	Soybeans	5.00	445.50		Peru	Soymeal	10.00	0.00
Israel	Soybeans	21.80	184.70		Philippines	Soymeal	1.50	253.00
Italy	Soybeans	52.00	78.60		Saudi Arabia	Soymeal	26.00	102.40
Japan	Soybeans	74.40	1130.60		Thailand	Soymeal	1.00	4.00
Mexico	Soybeans	111.60	1322.40		Venezuela	Soymeal	1.50	64.60
Netherlands	Soybeans	64.10	707.00		Vietnam	Soymeal	8.00	25.60
Peru	Soybeans	14.00	5.20		China	Soyoil	30.00	62.00
Singapore	Soybeans	4.90	0.90		Colombia	Soyoil	1.10	15.00
Spain	Soybeans	35.80	213.00		Haiti	Soyoil	2.00	2.30
Taiwan	Soybeans	70.00	710.60		Venezuela	Soyoil	7.00	6.00
Turkey	Soybeans	16.00	211.70
Vietnam	Soybeans	1.30	22.70		Export Sales Totals (tmt)
Canada	Soymeal	38.10	416.70		Commodity	Outstanding Sales	Accum. Exports	New Sales
Colombia	Soymeal	29.40	110.60		Soybeans	8,085.00	14,490.80	663.10
Honduras	Soymeal	1.20	35.30		Soymeal	1,704.70	2,241.20	162.50
Ireland	Soymeal	4.60	1.80		Soyoil	207.20	298.20	58.80