January 27, 2011


US census predicts a decline in December soy crush 


US Census Bureau predicted its estimate for December's soy crush at 152 million bushels, a modest decline from the previous month, as a reduction in processing to poor margins due to higher soy prices.


This was according to a survey of industry analysts.


The Census Bureau's crush report is scheduled for release Thursday at 8 a.m. EST, (1300 GMT). The following are the overall results of the survey:


The US Census Bureau reports its monthly soy crush in million bushels; US soyoil stocks are reported in billion pounds; and US soymeal stocks are reported in thousand short tonnes.


The National Oilseed Processors Association crush report provides the market with an indication of potential changes that could be made in the Census report.


In its January 14 report, NOPA said the December crush was 145.5 million bushels, down 3.33 million bushels from November. The NOPA report includes figures only from member processors.


Crush offtake is seen down, as rising cash soy prices and signs of slack domestic meal demand left estimated processing margins under pressure, according to a J.P. Morgan research report.


December soymeal stocks are seen declining to 419,750 short tonnes, down from the 484,200 tonnes reported for November.


The decrease in US soymeal stocks was attributed to a slowdown in domestic crush, industry participants said.


Soyoil stocks are seen rising to 3.489 billion pounds in the report, up from 3.294 billion the previous month. In the NOPA report, soyoil stocks saw a 189-million-pound increase in stocks.


Despite strong implied soyoil demand and a slower crush pace, soyoil stocks rose on high soyoil yields reported from crushers.


"Soy oil yields continued the recovery seen over the past few months, due to the availability of soy supplies with higher oil content," J.P. Morgan said.

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