January 27, 2006


IGC raises 2005/06 world corn, wheat ending stocks forecasts



The International Grains Council raised its 2005-06 world ending stocks forecasts for both wheat and corn Thursday.


IGC now forecasts 2005/06 world wheat ending stocks at 133 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from its previous estimate in November, but still down from 2004/05 endings stocks of 137 million tonnes.


The agency raised its 2005-06 ending stock forecast for world corn to 137 million tonnes, up 7 million tonnes from the previous estimate. This is also up from the IGC's estimate for 2004/05 world corn stocks of 128 million tonnes.





Within the balance sheets, IGC raised its 2005/06 world wheat output forecast by 4 million tonnes to 615 million tonnes.


Partially offsetting this, 2005/06 world wheat consumption was raised by 2 million tonnes from the previous estimate due to larger feed use in the EU and Canada.


World wheat trade was lowered by 1 million to 108 million. IGC said, "China's imports will be much smaller than last season. Still the agency added that there has been an increase in purchases by the EU, North Africa and Brazil.





IGC said world corn endings stocks were up from previous estimates due to upward revisions for Brazil and the US.


Within the supply/demand forecast, IGC increased its output forecast by 6 million tonnes to 683 million tonnes. This was partially offset by the IGC's increase in world corn consumption by 3 million tonnes to 675 million to equal the 2004/05 record.


IGC said record use is due to higher demand in Europe, Africa and North America. In North America, use has been boosted by rapidly growing ethanol production, IGC said.


IGC forecast 2005/06 world corn trade at 76 million tonnes, down 700,000 from the previous estimate. The agency reported greater competition and weak import demand for the US.


IGC said China's projected sales for October-September are up by 2 million tonnes to 5 million tonnes, after the issue of new export licenses and additional financial incentives.