January 22, 2026
2026 market outlook: Hamlet Protein CEO shares insights on trends, risks, and growth opportunities
Animal protein production will continue to grow in 2026, but not for all species. Poultry and aquaculture will keep momentum, while swine and ruminant production will decline.
Geopolitics will continue to influence trade flows across the globe and disruptions impacting the entire supply chain can flair up anytime. The most important bilateral relationship to watch for will be the one between China and the United States.
Feed costs are expected to remain stable, allowing producers to invest in specialty ingredients and additives. Soybean meal (SBM) cost levels are forecast to remain stable. Nutritional strategies will become increasingly important in reaching the animal's genetic potential.
African swine fever (ASF) and avian influenza (HPAI) continue to be a threat to producers worldwide, who will increase their focus on farm management, bio-security measures, and nutrition to minimise risks.
Regulation in the European Union and US has the potential to have a strong impact on feed, feed ingredients, and feed additive producers alike, and EU regulation specifically may affect the competitive positioning of European producers versus their global peers.
Sustainability efforts of the industry will move beyond a focus on compliance towards integral risk management strategies that not only mitigate for climate related risks but seek to adapt business models.
Hamlet Protein chief executive officer Erik Visser shares his outlook on the key topics that will shape the markets in the coming year and its impact on animal protein and animal nutrition supply chains.
Geopolitics: Risks remain
After the initial shock of the 2025 US trade policies, the markets seem to have stabilised. Do not be fooled by that, as geopolitical risks will remain significant and disruptions can flair up anytime.
The question is no longer whether the US will use tariffs as a political tool, but to what extent, and what the knock-on effects of those tariffs will be.
A challenge to the so called "reciprocal" tariffs on goods from individual countries and for levies imposed on China, Canada, and Mexico tied to the flow of fentanyl into the US was argued before the US Supreme Court in late 2025, and a decision is expected in early 2026.
Watch especially for the impact of the US – China trade relation on soy- and pork exports from the US, and its implications for global markets. The current trade agreement will expire in the second half of 2026 and, combined with the US midterm elections coming up in November, this may be enough motivation for the current US administration to reach a deal with China.
The free trade deal with the two largest US.trading partners - Canada and Mexico - is up for review in 2026 amid uncertainty over whether the US will let the pact expire or try to renegotiate key provisions.
The EU will assess its trading relationship with China, and tariffs or other measures will be considered as options to address the growing imbalance in their trading ties.
Global economy: Watch AI, China, and US
Current projections will see 2026 deliver stronger economic growth than expected earlier: +3%, mostly driven by China (+5%) and the US (+2,5%). Growth in the Eurozone will be more sluggish at +1,2%.
Watch out for the large stock that was built by US companies in 2025, to avoid the impact of increasing import rates, that reduced the inflationary effect of the US trade policies. If we see a delayed effect in 2026 – and that effect is strong enough - then this could impact growth rates.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) may not impact the real economy to the same extent it is already playing a role on the financial markets. Large investments and strong valuations will be affected in a possible market correction. At the same time, advancing technology will impact labor markets and productivity and as such affect economic growth.
While China has grown to become a dominant player on the global political and economic stage, the less predictable US trade and foreign policies create an opportunity for the EU – and the euro – to grow its global influence.
Animal protein: Slowing growth
Growth in animal production will slow down in 2026 to less than 0.5%. While poultry and aquaculture will continue to grow, swine and ruminant production will stabilise or show a slight decline.
Producers will face tighter margins due to disease, higher trade costs, and trading down by pricesensitive consumers.
Efficiency will be the name of the game, and nutrition will play a key role in reaching the animal's genetic potential.
Markets: Mixed picture
The global demand for animal protein is being supplied through local production and imports. Disease outbreaks, regulation, and trade policies are key factors in determining where production will take place. Whenever a market disruption takes place, one of the competing export blocks will quickly step up production volumes to benefit from the emerging opportunity.
Europe will see pork and poultry production grow, but political pressure on agriculture may cause volumes to shift from NWE to CEE. North America will see modest growth in swine, while poultry will accelerate. Southeast Asia is set to deliver increased pork production, but ASF remains a challenge. Poultry production will see strong growth.
Following government mandated herd contraction at the end of 2025. China will see its swine production decrease, South America will see growth across all species, primarily driven by Brazil. The EU-Mercosur interim trade agreement may create growth opportunities for beef and poultry exporters.
Multinational companies that offer a diversified product portfolio, service a broad range of species, and have market share in all regions, are best positioned to deal with changing market conditions and shifting consumer preferences.
Feed costs stable
Feed costs can account for up to 70% of total production costs, that is why it is such an important KPI to track.
An intensification of the La Niña phenomenon could reduce crop yields in South America – particularly soy and maize – and impact anchovy fishing in Peru, which is essential for producing fishmeal and fish oil.
Feed costs are expected to remain stable, or trend moderately lower, in 2026, allowing producers to invest in specialty ingredients and feed additives inclusion to drive the health and performance of their animals.
A potential risk could come from deteriorating trade relations between EU or US on one side and China on the other side. As China produces more than 70% of the world's vitamins, and many critical amino acids, including more than 75% of the world's lysine and more than 25% of methionine, access to Chinese suppliers is critically important for feed producers.
SBM stable
Soybean meal has evolved from a traditional agricultural crop into a global strategic instrument.
Although production reached record levels in 2025, pricing not only relates to available quantity, as politics, sustainability, and traceability are becoming ever more important.
China is by far the biggest importer of soybeans and has a large crushing capacity. The trade relation with the US will determine whether their volume will be sourced from the US or Brazil. After China, Europe is the largest importer of soybeans and SBM, predominantly from South America. The EU's own soybean harvest, all of it non-GM, is insufficient to serve the demands from the industry.
The implementation of the EUDR, the strategic restructuring of US–China trade relations, US and Brazilian biofuel policies, US farm subsidies, and logistical pressures in South America will define the soybean meal markets in 2026.
The current view is for price levels to remain stable in 2026.
Ocean freight: Low predictability
After years of unprecedented supply chain disruption – from the CVOID-era chaos to the Red Sea crisis distortion – stability is not yet in sight.
2026 will see a strong influx of new vessels, increasing the global fleet capacity by as much as 5%. At the same time, the potential reopening of the Suez Canal will lead to short-term disruption.
Couple that with the unpredictable nature of tariffs and volatility in pricing and availability is going to be the only certainty in the new year.
Energy costs: Downward trend oil and gas
Gas and electricity are important cost factors in the production of fertilisers – resulting in an indirect impact on feed costs – and in the production of animal nutrition and feed specialties. Oil is an important driver for transportation costs and to produce certain feed commodities.
2026 will see pressure on oil and gas prices due to expected oversupply — oil, because of OPEC ending its voluntary production cuts and gas due to new liquefied gas (LNG) capacity being brought on stream. Electricity pricing is expected to see an upward trend, following increased demand.
The ongoing war in Ukraine, an unstable ceasefire in the Middle East and the potential for further escalation in Venezuela will keep supply chains and energy security exposed to sudden disruptions. On the other hand, we could see Europe benefit from a cease to hostilities in Ukraine and normalisation of energy supply from Russia.
While the energy transition advances, it does so at a slower pace following recent policy changes and lack of storage capacity in major markets. Still, wind and solar energy are set to become ever more important in the energy mix.
Labor market: Risk of shortage of skilled workers
In 2026, the industry's work force will continue to shrink. A rising number of retirements, slowdown in attracting new talent, and restrictive migration policies will put pressure on animal protein and animal nutrition producers alike.
Automation may be part of the answer, but the industry will need to focus on highlighting the importance of producing safe feed for food and how young professionals can contribute to feeding a growing global demand.
Feed mills, farms, and integrators alike should have a strategy in place to cover their future work force, invest in hiring, training, and retaining skilled workers, and offer compensation packages that allows them to compete with other industries.
Disease outbreaks: Impact continues
Where, and to what extent, diseases will affect markets, is impossible to predict. That we will experience disease outbreaks in 2026, and that this will affect animal protein supply chains should be considered a certainty.
Outbreaks in local markets will disrupt export flows, drive up costs for producers, and impact price levels.
ASF and avian influenza (AI) will be the most widespread diseases that will impact local and export markets. Combined with emerging diseases like New World Screwworm, foot and mouth disease and bluetongue, the risk of these outbreaks will drive increased bio-security measures.
Regulation: Major policies under review
The implementation of the European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) was delayed by another 12 months in December 2025. The legislation targets seven key commodities, amongst which cattle and soy are directly related to animal protein and animal nutrition.
On April 30, the EU will review reporting demands under the EUDR, and during the year a clearer timeline for its implementation is expected to be confirmed.
An important adjustment that has been announced already is that the responsibility for EUDR compliant sourcing will be limited to the company that introduces SBM on the European market.
In the US, the Innovative Feed Enhancement and Economic Development (FEED) act is pending in Congress with bipartisan support. The legislation aims to modernise the current FDA's regulatory framework to allow approval of feed ingredients offering benefits beyond basic nutrition. This will mean a huge step forward for US manufactures and importers alike, to communicate more effectively on the health and performance impact of feed additives.
The use of medication in feed formulations in general, and antibiotic growth promoters (AGP) in particular, will be subject to ever increasing regulation. As there is no single product that can replace antibiotics, a multi-faceted nutritional approach will be needed to drive animal health and performance.
Regulatory frameworks will provide growth opportunities for feed additives and specialty ingredients producers.
Sustainability: A strategic pillar
Sustainability is no longer a ‘nice-to-have', but a ‘must-have' throughout the supply chain. That does not mean all sustainability efforts can be monetised. Customers will select suppliers based on sustainable practices, without necessarily paying a premium.
Animal protein producers will increasingly focus on optimising feed for better efficiency, reducing their environmental impact, using alternative ingredients, and improving animal health and welfare.
At the same time, risk management is becoming a more important element in sustainability practices, as future investments will increasingly take climate change into consideration.
Finally, regulatory demands will force producers to integrate sustainability policies in their strategic planning.
Mergers and acquisitions: Increased dealmaking
Expect an increased M&A activity in 2026, after several years of limited deal making in animal nutrition and animal protein markets. Multinational companies and private equity (PE) seeking scale and efficiency will focus on sustainability, technological integration, and strategic consolidation.
Large, integrated companies are looking to streamline their portfolios, divesting non-core animal nutrition assets to focus on areas where they have a stronger, more competitive position. Private equity firms are actively deploying capital and consolidating mid-sized suppliers of specialty additives, attracted by the sector's resilience and consistent growth. Inorganic growth by current midsize players to expand geographically, add technology, or drive portfolio diversification will further boost M&A activities.
Large transactions, like the planned sale of dsm-firmenich's animal nutrition division, may accelerate further consolidation in the industry.
Artificial intelligence: Evolution, not revolution
AI in animal protein and animal nutrition production will be a matter of evolution not revolution, as implementing it in a conservative business environment is likely to be challenged by farm managers and nutritionists alike.
It should be expected that there will be an increased focus on using data from multiple sources to create tailored and optimised diets for different animal species and monitoring of individual animal feeding behaviors for early detection of health- or nutrition challenges.
At the same time, AI will be applied to support sustainability initiatives, like optimisation of water and energy usage, reduction of waste, carbon footprint tracking, and improved manure management for example.
How to win in 2026: Agility
The question is not if, but how much change will come our way in the coming year.
On a global scale the demand for animal protein will continue to grow. People will continue to eat meat, milk, eggs and fish, and the industry will have to feed an increasing number of global citizens.
What protein source they will prefer, and where that is being produced, will directly impact the sourcing of animal nutrition and feed additives.
Geopolitics, consumer preferences, animal diseases, and regulation are just a few elements that will play a role in shaping the markets in the coming year.
Future success will depend on adaptability and agility, so the winners of 2026 will be the companies that respond quickly and decisively to changing circumstances.
Hamlet Protein: Innovation and market share growth
In 2026, Hamlet Protein will continue to deliver best in class solutions for young animal nutrition. The company is optimistic about achieving further growth across regions in the new year, as it sees an increasing focus on early life feeding to reach the animal's genetic potential.
The SSP market size is estimated at 1,6 Mmt, and will continue to grow at an average of 3-4% year-on-year. Macro-economic drivers, such as a growing world population, increased regulation, and further market consolidation, support this market growth.
Hamlet Protein will not only replace other vegetable protein products but take share of animal protein diet sources like plasma and fish meal to further increase our volumes. Fishmeal supply is expected to remain tight in 2026, with elevated price levels as a consequence. Porcine plasma will face price volatility and upward price pressure due to supply contraction.
Hamlet Protein will follow up on its unique research on protein kinetics – that showed that Hamlet Protein has the fastest available vegetable protein in the market - and define how the speed of digestion can be used to optimise feed formulations.
In the second half of last year, the company released exciting trial results in dry calf starter feeds. It will use those to further grow its presence in ruminant markets. In the poultry segment, it will look at layers and turkeys for further growth.
Hamlet Protein is renowned for its work in piglets, which has helped the company create strong relationships in the swine industry over the years. In response to increasing concerns from the industry on sow KPIs, it will cooperate with swine producers to run trials targeting a reduction in sow mortality.
Sustainability remains a cornerstone of Hamlet Protein's strategy. At the end of 2025, it completed its Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and joined the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi), which provides the company with a clear roadmap for 2026 and beyond.
Hamlet Protein will continue to invest in people, products, production, and processes to maintain its leading position in specialty soy proteins, and work alongside its distribution partners to grow in export markets.
- Hamlet Protein
