Official estimates of China's bumper crop to be reconsidered   

Record corn prices in China contradict official estimates of a bumper crop, raising doubts among analysts.

Corn prices in the northeastern province of Jilin have hit RMB1,720 (US$252) a tonne, up 25% year-on-year. The increase has been attributed in part to growing demand from processors.

Analysts warned that the price rise may insinuate that China's 2009-10 crop fell short of the official estimate of 163 million tonnes. Private consulting firm, Shanghai JC Intelligence, has pegged the crop at 140 million tonnes. The USDA has estimated production at 155 million tonnes.

USDA staff in Beijing have warned over the reliability of Chinese grain data, saying that provincial authorities are "occasionally tempted" by a subsidy regime to overstate production estimates.

In Chicago, the higher Chinese prices were welcomed as potentially supportive for US markets eventually.

A much lower 2009-10 crop could force China to import large amounts of corn for the first time in years, but do not expect this to happen for several months or more, grain analyst Vic Lespinasse said.

This is something that could have a bullish impact on the US corn market in the long term, he added.