January 20, 2021
 

China's domestic pork production fell less than expected in 2020

China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the country's 2020 domestic pork output declined 3.3% to 41.13 million tonnes after dropping 21% in 2019, less than what analysts expected as China steadily recovers from an African swine fever outbreak that decimated its swine herd, Reuters reported.

Pan Chenjun, a senior analyst at Rabobank, said the 2020 numbers were higher than expected as they projected a 10-15% decline in November.

Xiao Lin, an analyst at Shenzhen-based Win & Fun Investment, said she projected a 5-10% decline in 2020 swine output.

China's swine industry has been helped by strong policy support and incentives, with more than RMB 200 billion (US$30.87 billion; RMB 1 = US$0.15) invested into the sector.

The NBS data showed China slaughtered 527.04 million swine last year, 3.2% lower than in 2019.

2020 final quarter production increased 13 million tonnes, based on Reuters' calculations. That is 21% higher from the 10.74 million tonnes in the same period in 2019 and higher than the 8.4 million tonnes in the third quarter of last year.

Pork prices have continued to rise since end-November 2019, now at RMB 47 (~US$7.25) per kg. This was the same price as the year prior.

Pan said this means there is a major pork shortage, as demand as not risen significantly.

NBS data showed China's swine herd increased to 406.5 million heads by the end of last year, from 370.39 million by end-September 2020.

NBS data also showed domestic beef production was up 0.8% and lamb production was up 1% last year. Domestic poultry output increased 5.5%.

- Reuters