January 17, 2022

USDA expects Philippines' 2022 pork production to reach one million tonnes

The United States Department of Agriculture predicted pork production in the Philippines will reach 1.025 million tonnes in 2022 due to increased herd repopulation efforts.

African swine fever (ASF) remains the primary constraint in the hog sector. New ASF outbreaks will also dampen recovery efforts. Pork production in 2021 is expected to total 1.0 million tonnes.

Total pork production declined 23.4% from January to October 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. The Central Luzon region, historically the Philippines's top pork producer, plunged 71%, as it is heavily affected by ASF.

In response to the government increasing the Minimum Access Volume allocation for pork and lowering tariff rates, pork belly prices started to decline from May to October 2021.

By October 2021, pork prices were at a recent low of ₱341 (US$6.82) per kilogramme. By November, however, pork prices started to increase. This rise can be attributed to several factors: high gasoline prices, increasing demand towards the Christmas holiday season and policies that prevented the full utilisation of MAV for pork and disruptive meat labeling requirements.

The 2022 pork import forecast for the Philippines is 375,000 tonnes, in line with current trade flows and the Philippine policies on MAV and tariffs scheduled to expire in 2022.

- USDA