January 17, 2014

Mexico's Jan-Oct shrimp production down 34% on-year

In January to October 2013, Mexican shrimp production dropped 34% on-year and may even drop further.

A panellist at the National Fisheries Institute (NFI) conference in Miami, Florida said that considering expectations of a huge decrease at the end of the year - during the highest production months - it is likely the total numbers for the year will show an even greater decrease.

"I think that by the time we take a look at the overall data by the end of the year, it's going to be down 55%," Bill Hoenig, in procurement and operations for Delta Blue Aquaculture, told a room of conference-goers at NFI's shrimp panel.

The disease issues that have brought the country to this point are going to force huge changes in the industry, Hoenig said. State officials confirmed early mortality syndrome (EMS) in Mexico in August after months of speculation that the disease existed in the country.

Sinaloa and Sonora are by far the biggest production zones, and only Sinaloa is addressing the disease issues head on.

"There's not going to be a quick recovery - it's going to be slow - and it's going to be in Sinaloa, and it's going to involve a totally new production scheme, and we're going to have to spend money - it's going to require going up the old system of recognising the only path forward is a new system," he said.

Regardless of when consolidation happens, recovery will be extremely slow, Hoenig predicts. EMS is expected to keep production even lower this year than last year.

In Sonora, farms are not likely to go into production any time soon, and although there is good work being done in Sinaloa, such as using smaller ponds, there are some factors going against that area too.

The real problem is, things are not likely to get better any time soon. The most optimistic projections for next year are for production on par with this year's low production numbers, and the more realistic projection is for a decrease.