January 16, 2025
EU's beef production expected to hit 6.3 million tonnes by 2035, pork production to drop
The European Union has released its latest medium-term agricultural outlook, providing projections for key sectors, including beef, lamb and pork, up to 2035.
For beef, the bloc's production was projected to decrease by 450,000 tonnes, reaching 6.3 million tonnes by 2035 (-6.7% compared to the 2022-2024 average).
The EU cow herd was expected to shrink by 2.9 million head (-9.6%), with the suckler cow herd falling to 9.5 million head (-7.5%) due to profitability challenges and stricter regulations on sustainability.
Per capita beef consumption was expected to fall from 9.8 kilogrammes in 2024 to 9.2 kilogrammes by 2035 (-5.9%) due to high prices and increased consumer concerns about environmental impact.
EU meat exports were projected to grow by 0.9% per year driven by demand from key markets in the Middle East and North Africa, while live animal exports were forecast to decrease by 3.2% per year to 2035.
Beef imports, which declined in 2024 due to limited supply from Brazil, were projected to increase slowly (+0.6% per year), reaching 343,000 tonnes by 2035.
Average slaughter weights were expected to continue rising due to better feed and herd management, though this may be partially offset by increased organic and extensive farming practices.
After a period of high prices in 2022-2024, EU beef prices are expected to stabilise at around €6/kg by 2035 due to tighter supply and higher production costs.
For pork, EU production was projected to decrease by 0.5% annually, resulting in a total decline of around 1.2 million tonnes by 2035 compared to the 2022-2024 average. This reduction is primarily due to societal concerns over intensive pig farming, stricter environmental regulations, and reduced export opportunities.
EU per capita pork consumption was expected to decline by 0.4% annually, dropping to 30 kg by 2035 (-5% compared to 2022-2024). This decline reflects shifting dietary preferences, driven by environmental concerns and perceived health issues related to the higher fat content of pork.
While EU pork exports surged in 2022, they were projected to decrease by 1% annually as China, the Philippines, and Vietnam recover their domestic production capacity. Despite this, the United Kingdom is expected to become the EU's largest single export destination, even though overall UK demand may decrease.
After a price spike in 2022-2023 and a decline in 2024, EU pork prices were expected to remain elevated in the medium term due to increased production costs and a tighter supply. By 2035, prices were projected to reach €2.2/kg.
African swine fever (ASF) is assumed to remain present in the EU, but no major outbreaks are expected.
- AHDB
